(15 March 2026) It is now 10 pm MST March 15, or, 5 AM GMT, March 16.
As of now, the Strait of Hormuz continues to be blocked. It has been blocked for 16 days. About 256 to 320 million barrels of oil have been removed from global oil supplies by Iran’s closing of the Strait of Hormuz.
The idea of the Second Signpost having started March 2 is still in play.
Before the war, around February 27, there was a line of oil tanker traffic in and out of the Strait of Hormuz, just as we see today going through the Gulf of Aden and the Red Sea at the southwest corner of the Arabian peninsula (see top map). The Strait of Hormuz today shows no such traffic (bottom map). Both maps are shown in order to better show the Strait’s blockage vs. normal traffic.
Oil tanker traffic through Gulf of Aden on March 15, 2026. From marinetraffic.com.
Oil tanker lack of traffic through Strait of Hormuz on March 15, 2026. From marinetraffic.com.
We are currently waiting for the next move in this war. There threats from both sides. There is talk of Trump sending several thousand US marines to occupy Kharg Island.
The IRGC is threatening to strike oil ports and facilities of its Arab neighbors.
News Item: Strait of Hormuz Possible “Killbox”
The Daily Mail reports that the US Navy has cautioned that, “Sending US sailors to the narrow strait will likely turn them into easy targets for disastrous Iranian drone and missile strikes, according to the Navy.”
Conclusion
Today is a relatively quiet news day compared to the news in the last few days. In the early hours of the commodity market open, WTI is hovering at around $100 per barrel.
Keep watch.
Categories: ALERT, In The News, Signpost #2: Iran
THE FOUR SIGNPOSTS 
We already know that the blockade of the Strait of Hormuz severely diminishes the supply of:
– Oil
– Natural Gas
– Fertilizers
But there is even more:
One-third of the world’s helium supply is no longer coming from the Persian Gulf countries.
This inert gas is vital to the computer chip industry.
South Korea used to get 65% of its helium from Qatar.
Together, South Korea and Taiwan make 36% of the world’s computer chips.
https://www.techspot.com/news/111683-critical-semiconductor-gas-lost-third-global-supply-drone.html
And there is yet more:
This blow is coming on top of a huge problem that arose last fall.
The companies in the Artificial Intelligence race are buying all the memory chips they can get, for all the new giant data centers they are building.
This has lead to a worldwide shortage of memory chips.
Their prices exploded to four times as high.
Since last november, all electronics containing memory chips are becoming more expensive.
And nowadays that is almost all electronics; bad for both consumers and companies.
https://www.techradar.com/pro/good-news-ram-prices-seem-to-have-finally-stabilized-bad-news-its-probably-because-memory-prices-are-so-high-that-its-forcing-most-of-us-to-give-up-buying-anything
The computer, IT and tech world since last fall calls this the “RAMpocalyps” or even “RAMmageddon”. Doubtless in jest, but these expressions do show how dire this problem already was before the Gulf War, which now comes on top of it.
And yes, it has not escaped my notice that both expressions contain “RAM”. It stands for Random Acces Memory, but on this present blog, Mark can add this to his list of wordplays… 🙂
Sailing through the Strait of Hormuz has become even more dangerous, on top of mines, drones and rockets. GPS is now being jammed, so the ships no longer know each other’s positions, which can make them collide:
https://www.techspot.com/news/111688-gps-getting-jammed-strait-hormuz-ships-appearing-circles.html
The straits don’t seem to be fully blocked, Iran is allowing friendly vessels who negotiate with them through the straits, they seem to be letting oil hover around 90 or $100! without great escalation The second sign post will advance, but it will take time, once the Americans weapons are depleted once the bases that are American are totally bombed. it seems right now Iran has escalation dominance so the process of Iran becoming great may take years. or until the West is able to gather forces along with Turkey in the West it may take a while. just like a Iraq took years.
Hopeful,
You bring up an interesting point.
The appearance of the first horseman to the lion being made to stand was 23 years (1980 to 2003). But once the First Signpost proper started with the lion standing, it took only 2 years. Could we say the First Signpost was the lion only or the horseman too?
Now, what we see is the second horseman taking away peace (weird – also 23 years – since the start of the lion standing). How long before the Second Signpost proper begins with the slaying in the quarter of the earth/Bear/Ram? Could be days. Could be years – you are right.
Our jobs are to be salt and light, keeping an eye over the shoulder at the Middle East.