Several news articles have come out recently, of which this one is an example, about the Turkish military moving in to Syria.
In regards to the Second Signpost, this is fairly insignificant.
First, Iran and Turkey have been fighting the Kurds who live in those respective countries for the last several years. The governments of both Iran and Turkey want to keep the Kurds from forming their own nation.
It’s the Kurds in Syria who have the most independence because Syria has been a “broken” country since 2011. Turkish president Erdoğan wants to keep all Kurds aware, no matter which country they live, that the Turks will not tolerate any Kurds starting their own country. This is why he is pushing his forces into Syria, since the Syrian government is in no position to fight the Kurds themselves.
To make the whole thing sound more humane, Erdoğan says he is setting up a 20-mile deep “safe zone” to allow Syrian refugees in Turkey to go back to their home in Syria. This is true; however, the main reason to go into Syria, again, is to fight the Kurds.
The American military is pulling out of Syria to allow the Turkish military a free hand.
This Invasion Into Syria, and the Second Signpost
So what does all this mean for the Second Signpost? Not much. With the Americans out, and the Turks in conflict again with the Kurds, one could say there are fewer obstacles for Iranian forces to run north and west. However, we’ve seen groups of military fighting one another before, such as Syrians fighting ISIS.
With possible Iranian rocket and drone attacks on oil facilities throughout the Middle East, and the numbers of troops Iran may devote to exporting their Revolution, many recent skirmishes in the region present and past start to pale in significance.
I believe the Turkish invasion of Syria is yet another battle being fought in the region that will have little effect in the long run on the Second Signpost.