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Day 23 of Oil Blockage: A Wild Card and the Seeds of Famine

By Mark Davidson on March 23, 2026 • ( 0 )

(23 March 2026) It is now 10 pm MST March 23, or, 5 AM GMT, March 24.

As of now, the Strait of Hormuz continues to be blocked. It has been blocked for 23 days. About 368 to 460 million barrels of oil have been removed from global oil supplies by Iran’s closing of the Strait of Hormuz.

Roughly one-third of the natural gas and fertilizer that is globally produced has also been cut off.

The idea of the Second Signpost having started March 2 is still in play. Until the regime is completely disbanded, or until the Ram runs out, this is not over.

Trump’s Five Day Postponement

This ZeroHedge article summarizes the situation. President Trump claimed to be in talks with Iran, and so the US strikes are delayed five days. However, the regime claims that no talks are taking place.

So either Trump is purposeful misleading, or the IRGC is, or possibly Trump is talking with regime representatives, but the regime is so fragmented their left hand doesn’t know what their right hand is doing.

In any event, what Trump actually commands the US military to do and when is keeping the world guessing.

The Seeds of Famine

This ZeroHedge analysis provides evidence of the fertilizer shortage as of right now creating a “food price shock” that could occur by this Fall. A timeline is quoted here –

Wave 1 (now): fertilizer price spike, contract disruption.
Wave 2 (Q3-Q4 2026): reduced planting, lower yields, worst in Africa and South Asia where pre-purchasing is impossible.
Wave 3 (2027): food price inflation hitting retail in import-dependent economies.

Even if the Strait of Hormuz opens tomorrow, the damage has been done to the food supply chain. And if it doesn’t open up, the damage becomes multi-year in duration.

Therefore, it looks like peace of mind is already being taken away, it’s just a matter of does this condition rate the second horseman’s being behind it.

Conclusion

Since we don’t know what will happen and when, assuming the worst seems prudent at the moment. That would be, toward the end of this week, Trump does what he originally threatened, and the regime does what they originally threatened.

Then the Second Signpost will be asserted, while the seeds of the Third signpost are being planted.

Keep watch.