Oil Shortage Status (Day 78)

By Mark Davidson on May 17, 2026 • ( 0 )

(17 May 2026) It is now 10 pm MST May 17, or, 4 AM GMT, May 18. As of now, the Strait of Hormuz has been blocked for 78 days.

The idea of the Second Signpost having started March 2 is still in play. And it will remain in play and either be disproved when the regime is completely disbanded, or will be confirmed when the Ram runs out across the Middle East. March 2 is the day the second horseman supposedly began taking away the peace of mind of the earth.

Oil Shortage Status and Scenario

This Oilprice analysis summarizes the global oil shortage fairly well, and gives us some dates ahead.

By the end of this month, the world will have suffered a loss of 1 billion barrels of oil against the global surplus inventory of 1.2 billion barrels existing three months ago.

One group of analysts say that by June the world would “approach operational stress levels”, meaning fuel shortages.

Ominously, JP Morgan says the Strait reopens in June, as if it must. The article reports,

“‘Our conclusion is that one way or another the strait reopens in June,’ JP Morgan’s Natasha Kaneva said, as an end to the war would be the only way the world avoids the shortage scenario. If that does not happen, ‘The next phase of this shock may look less like a traditional crude spike and more like a refining and end-user fuel crisis.’”

Conclusion

Unless something changes, like the Strait of Hormuz reopening soon, the world will head down the path of the Second signpost and the loss of peace of mind of the world.

Keep watch.