The Second Signpost, Revelation 6:4, and the Coming Oil Shock

Written both in my book, Daniel Revisited, and in past posts on this site, Iran will invade and occupy many countries in the Middle East.  That is the essence of the Second Signpost.  The countries to be occupied will likely include Saudi Arabia, Iraq, the Gulf states like Kuwait, Qatar and the UAE, and parts of Syria, Turkey and Egypt.  But by far the biggest impact to the rest of humanity in terms of day-to-day life will be the shutting off of one-quarter of the world’s oil supply.

The Second Signpost includes the second horseman of Revelation 6.  The second horseman is given power to allow men to slay one another (Rev. 6:4b) but only in one-quarter of the earth (Rev. 6:8b).  But he also is given the distinction among all four horsemen of being given power to take peace from the entire earth (Rev 6:4a), not just one-quarter of the earth.  The word used for “peace” is “iraynay” which does not mean absence of war, but peace of mind, and security.  That same word is used when Jesus said “peace be with you.”  In fact, in almost all instances of iraynay occuring in the New Testament it means peace of mind and not absence of war.

Though there will be a major war limited to the Islamic realm, peace of mind will be taken from the entire earth.

As I wrote in Daniel Revisited in chapter 10, I can think of only one thing that would take peace from the entire earth, given a major war in the Middle East.  It’s oil.  For centuries Christians reading Revelation 6:4 may have wondered what exactly might take peace from the earth, if it wasn’t war itself.  Only in the last sixty years or so has the world become so dependent on that one commodity for everything from transportation, to plastics, paints, fertilizer, and the list goes on and on.  And only in the last sixty years or so has fully one quarter of the world’s daily production of oil been located within Iran’s reach.  Vulnerable to Iran’s advance are the oilfields in the six major oil producing countries in the region: Saudi Arabia, Iran, Iraq, Kuwait, Qatar, and the UAE.  If one quarter of the world’s oil suddenly became unavailable, the price of a barrel of oil could double or triple very quickly because the missing oil would need to be replaced immediately.  Those nations that lost their oil supply at the start would bid up the price of oil which comes from other global sources where it is available.

If you have been watching the news involving Iran, you may have caught stories of how that nation has threatened to shut down the Strait of Hormuz.  Most of the exported oil from those six listed nations goes through that strait.  If the Strait of Hormuz was blocked one-fifth of the world’s oil would be blocked.  This is why the Strait of Hormuz is such a big deal.  This is why the U.S. Navy has said it will keep the strait open.

But when Iranian forces, per Daniel 8:4, charge out to occupy much of the Middle East they will most likely occupy the oilfields of those six nations.  Whether the Strait of Hormuz is kept open or not would then become moot because Iran could stop the oil flow at its source.  How long might the oil stop flowing?  It would be until the four-nation Confederacy acting in the Third Signpost takes back the oilfields and tries to get the oil flowing again.  This could be months or even years.

How might various nations be affected?  For the average consumer, the price of just about everything will go up commensurate with the price increase of oil.  Those nations which are oil exporters could possibly keep the price of oil down for their own citizens.  But for nations as a whole, the affect could be as bad as completely disastrous.  Let me explain.

There will be two phases to the coming oil shock.  The first phase will be short term.  The price move in oil will be immediate, and those nations that have oil imported from the affected Irainan-occupied oilfields will have their imported oil cut immediately.  Every major nation has domestic oil stocks that will last for a number of days and weeks.  Each nation that had oil coming from the affected fields will scramble to replace that oil during the first several weeks.  The problem is that there is no extra oil on a global scale.  All oil that is produced and exported from any country is currently being used by another country.  This is why oil will skyrocket in price: countries that physically lost their flow of oil will bid up the price of oil that is physically available which other countries are currently using.

The second phase will be long term.  If a particular nation, say, Nation A, succeeds in procuring an oil supply at a higher price, where said oil formerly flowed to a different nation, Nation B, it could take months or longer for Nation A’s oil refineries to be “reprogrammed” to process the change in oil.  Oil refineries are geared towards the supply they receive in terms of degrees of sweetness of the oil, or kinds of impurities in the oil.  Even longer term, drilling could be stepped up in countries like Russia, Canada, Venezuela and Indonesia, or even the U.S., but that will take years to accomplish.

So how might particular countries fare in this oil shock?  The chart in this post shows the oil sources of the nations which have the largest economies.  These nations use perhaps three-quarters of the world’s oil as it is produced and is available today.  The nations are arranged from the left which are most adversely affected, to the right where nations are least affected and perhaps even benefited to some degree.  Each column represents 100% of the oil supply of each nation.  Red represents the oil that comes from the Iranian-occupied oilfields in the Middle East, and that oil would be physcally cut off immediately.  Yellow represents the oil coming from fields outside the affected area, that is imported, but would be up for grabs to the highest bidder.  In other words, if a nation with “yellow” oil could not outbid other nations bidding it up, it would lose its “yellow” oil.  Green is that oil that is produced domestically.  It also is up for grabs in a free market economy and would only be retained by that nation without the price being hiked if the government of that nation passed laws saying that oil produced there stays there.  Light blue is the oil that is being exported.  With the oil price skyrocketing, oil exporting nations might see a windfall in their trade balance.  And don’t think the blue oil can simply replace the demand for the lost red oil, because it is currently being used for the yellow oil which is imported.  So let’s briefly look at these individual countries as shown in the chart.

On the far left we have the largest economies of east Asia (with the exception of China): the nations of Japan, South Korea, and Taiwan.  These are all the large, industrially developed, free market economies of east Asia.  They will be hit hardest.  They import all of their oil.  Not only will 65% to over 80% of their oil physically and instantly stop flowing, but they will have to bid up to keep what oil they have (in yellow) in addition to trying to replace the oil they lost (in red), which was most of it.  What conditions these nations might suffer I cannot even imagine.  Industrial output and food distribution may be dramatically impacted.  These three nations will have the most to lose if they cannot outbid other nations for oil.

Next is Turkey.  It also is highly vulnerable due to its oil sources.  Since it will be leading the counter-attack as part of the four-nation Confederacy in the Third Signpost, it will have to act quickly.

Next we have the three largest economies in western Europe.  Italy, France and Germany import almost all of their oil, but less than 30% comes from the affected fields.  However, almost all of their oil is imported and so almost all of it will be bid up in price.  They will be working to merely retain the oil from the sources they already get oil from.

Next to the right are India, China, and South Africa.  These nations will lose a quarter of their oil immediately, and bid to keep about one-third.  Fortunately for them, they domestially produce 30-45% of their oil.  They also may have policies that keep oil cheap for their citizens.

Next is the United States.  It will imediately lose 10% of its oil supply.  With some light rationing or belt tightening on the part of Americans, the U.S. could almost weather this shortage.  However, because the United States has not kept up with domestic production to support its own appetite for oil, half of American’s oil will be raised in price.  And in this free market the domestic 40% could be up for grabs for bidding up as well.

Next to the right of the U.S. are Australia, the UK, and Indonesia.  They all domestically produce the majority of their oil, but that oil and the oil they receive currently will be bid up in price.

Next is Egypt, the second great nation of the future four-nation Confederacy of the Third Signpost.  It produces and uses all of its own oil.  This situation will serve it well during the Third Signpost.

Next after Egypt are the major Latin American nations of Argentina, Brazil and Mexico, which all produce their own oil and export the remainder.

Finally there is Canada and Russia.  These two nations export most of their oil and are major oil producers.  While average citizens might pay a higher price for oil, the governments and economies of these two nations could see a monetary windfall.  They might even have the option or will to subsidize the price of gasoline for their citizens to keep their economies going.

I do not write these things lightly.  I know what I am suggesting, but the Signpost interpretation of Daniel 7 and 8 and Revelation 6 dictates it.  I realize I cannot imagine the incredible pain and anguish many people throughout the world will experience, but this will be the essence and cause of the misery going into the final years before the Tribulation.  Nations in east Asia may have most of their oil physically cut off.  Europe’s oil will be bid up in price as the east Asian nations try to wrest some of the supply going to Europe, China, India and the U.S.

Many nations will have to put into place heavy rationing.  There may even be starvation and social unrest.  The three major nations of east Asia could be vulnerable to manipulation by China.  The United States, with its dependence on foreign oil, and its dollar’s value dependent on Saudi Arabia and the Gulf states selling all of its oil to the world in american dollars, may be outbid for much of the oil it now receives.  My guess is that at the start, between the loss of its red oil, and not being able to afford all of its yellow oil that it now receives, America might be cut to half the oil it normally gets until it can get more production online.  Nations like China, Australia and Germany could outbid the United States for oil it now receives, if the dollar suffers.

The only historical model we have for such deep cuts in oil is in Europe doing the Suez Crisis of 1956, when they lost 75% of their oil.  But at that time, Europe was not so dependent on oil as it is now, and it only lasted a few months because the United States diverted some of its oil production to Europe.  Those of you old enough to remember the oil embargos of 1973 and 1979 in the United States – these may very well seem like a walk in the park compared to what is coming.

Because oil is used for agriculture and just about everything that is made, the price of everything will climb breathtakingly.  This is how the red horseman will take peace from the earth.



Categories: Signpost #2: Iran

10 replies

  1. Great post! I wasn’t aware of Turkey’s precarious oil situation:
    Perhaps this means it needs to counterattack Iran’s invasion quickly.

  2. This is an extremely sobering post, Mark. I think most about this coming event and WHY the American election is going to be critical to our country’s future in light of the extreme hyperinflation that will take place because of the drastic reduction of oil. It should make every eligible American do their civic duty and elect government officials who understand how to best protect our economy and its citizen’s welfare. If more of the American public understood biblical prophecy (even in general terms) in light of the election, they would begin to understand the importance of casting their vote. Truly, I dread what is coming. I’m not going to lie about it and put on a brave face here. However, I would not have it any other way…I would rather know God’s truth of Scripture than not for He gave it to His children so they would trust Him for their lives and future. It may be that God has allowed this understanding to you by passing it along to other prophecy students for “such a time as this” (quoting the book of Ruth) so that our hearts may be prepared. This post is very plausible and may soon play out. Thank you for your diligent concern for the Family of God.

  3. Julie,
    Thanks for your comment, well said. So far, ministries have been stonewalling this book with every excuse possible, it seems. Individual brothers and sisters have been receiving this though. I always thought I wrote my book for the “church” in general, but now it seems I really did write it for the “ecclesia”, the “assembly of called out ONES.” I can only pray that others who have commented on this site are correct and that more people will learn this message in masse, once the Second Signpost plays out.
    MD

  4. James,
    Hence the goat whose hooves will not touch the ground, i.e. Daniel says it will be quick.

  5. Excellent article Mark. I have just finished your book on my iPad. I want to study it in more depth so have just bought a hard copy too. It is a tremendous study. Thank you so much. I have wanted to comment positively on it to you for a few weeks but having just read this article it spurred me on to do so.
    I live in New Zealand. Most of the “church” is asleep here but there are still some people well aware of what is happening as God opens the understanding of “end times.” I have a few things to ask you having read your book but I shall email you if that is alright with you.
    I, like Julie, do not like the thought of the troubles when this oil problem hits us and in the flesh one could easily panic but God did not give us a spirit of fear and I tell myself we have a wonderful God who has undertaken to keep us even though the tribulation time will be horrendous, we will have His wonderful shalom in the midst of it all till He comes. He is a wonderful Saviour.
    Thank you again for your diligent and excellent work. I was truely fascinated as I worked my way through it. Such a great explanation of those chapters in Daniel. I always wondered why such a lot of space was devoted to the carryings on of Alexander the Great and his progeny and empire contestors in those chapters – 8 and 11 I think but reading your scholarship it made SUCH SENSE! How can others not SEE IT!!!
    I came across “Hidden in Plain Site” on Amazon having just read Joel Richardsen’s great book “Mideast Beast” and that after being challenged by Walid Shoebat that the antichrist would be a Muslem.
    Wow! For me a complete turn around in understanding but so much now fits into place in the Bible and also in world events. It is an exciting tme to be alive AND to know from scripture what is going to happen.
    Be encouraged – God has used you/your book for such a time as this. God bless you Mark, faithful servant.

  6. Sharon,
    Thank you sister for your comment and your thoughts. Yes you and anyone else please feel free to email me.
    You are touching on a subject that hasn’t been discussed much, and that of end-time prophecy becoming real and hard and difficult in our everyday lives. This is where prophecy goes mainstream, if you will. This whole message was a surprise to me too a few years ago, and turned my views around. And while writing the book I was just not believing that no one else had come up with this theology; you are right it seems so simple and straightforward once you discover it.
    And the only answer I have is that this message was not to be unsealed until this time, and that others like Joel Richardson with his work, prepared the way for my work that the Lord has prepared me to do, and that if this message is true then I can only give our Lord Jesus Christ all the glory and praise for revealing the unsealing of His word in these truly last days before our King comes.
    You, Sharon, and all readers, in your countries, cities and churches need to spread the word to your brothers and sisters since – so far – ministries are stonewalling this. The Lord may soften ministry leaders’ hearts as the Second Signpost is revealed.
    Yes, basically 1/6 of Daniel (chapters 7 and 8) has been sitting unused for so many centuries awaiting its unsealed purpose; awaiting the unsealing to occur in peoples’ understanding. But God intended this to be the case.
    God bless,
    MD

  7. Mark,
    Thank you for your reply. I most certainly will tell those who will listen – I can’t keep silent about it!
    Last night I came across this video and wondered in light of your article above what you thought. It seems that Obama has a “hidden in plain sight” agenda in this Benghazi affair especially with Turkey.
    I am posting this here as others may be interested in this video as well. I don’t believe everything Glen Beck says, being a Mormon, but he has shown up the “strange” connections of Obama before and this video may be spot on!

    “Glenn Beck talks Libya, Syria, Turkey, and Ambassador Stevens”

    http://www.shoebat.com/2012/10/23/must-see-video-glenn-beck-talks-libya-syria-turkey-and-ambassador-stevens/

    Sharon

  8. Sharon,
    Though Glenn Beck is a mormon, I believe the Lord is using him. Beck has, after all, embraced Joel Richardson’s stance that the Antichrist will be Muslim, and has had Joel on his show. In this regard Beck is more open to the unsealing of prophecy than most Christian pastors and theologians. On the other hand, you are right, brothers and sisters cannot accept what he says theologically at face value.
    We must keep our eyes on Christ’s coming and the major events preceding that to know the season we are in. In the linked video, Beck addresses the details of the preparation of Muslim countries for their roles in the Third and Fourth Signposts. But Beck is calling out details, and that’s all they are – details. He is attempting to piece together details to answer the bigger strategic picture. The bigger strategic picture is the three remaining Signposts, and America’s role in promoting them, unwittingly. He also points out the bigger fact that America’s fingerprints are all over the Signposts. Not only did America prop up the lion in the First, but America may well trigger the Second, and right now as it shows in thsi video we are helping Muslim countries prepare for their role in the Third.
    Towards the end of the video, Beck says he doesn’t understand what this man (Obama) is doing. He would if he knew God was setting us all up for these end-time events, per the Signposts. I and my publicist have both written him on several occasions without getting any response. Beck wants answers – this message is the answer. Let it also help prove that the Bible points to the answer – a true relationship with Christ.
    God Bless,
    MD

  9. Mark,

    I have to interject here after reading the exchange between you and Sharon. I have been a long-time follower of Joel Richardson, and also follow your blog now. For awhile, Joel closed down his comments because of his schedule which was sad for us prophecy students. But prior to that his blog was smoking hot with high traffic volume because his ground-breaking understanding of difficult biblical prophecy passages. Glenn Beck is a national media figure and you will not likely get his attention on your own along with your publicist…do you know how many solicitations they get? Hundreds and hundreds! That approach is futile…as you found out. It is like trying to get into the Oval Office to see the President of the United States!

    Many on his blog at the time saw Joel “wishing” he could be on Beck’s TV show on FOXNEWS. When that was made known to many of his blog’s followers…we took action! I was one of those blog followers who wrote the producers. It was the followers of the blog who started an e-mail write-in campaign to Beck’s FOXNEWS TV producers that finally caught Beck’s attention! I saw Joel’s appearance on Beck when it aired! I was so happy for Joel. He’s now one of Beck’s stable of “experts” on Muslims and the Middle East.

    You may not be able to get Beck’s attention (or any other Christian Ministry for that matter) to take you seriously until the Second Signpost really begins to bite and adversely affect’s daily life. Yes, it is a shame it must come to something evil to get the attention of the Church and fallen human nature. It seems most live in a world of denial…until God’s Word gives us a hard reality check by unleashing the Second Horseman of the Apocalypse.

    Keep the faith. God is good all the time. Be patient. The truth will win.

  10. Yes I’ve come to the same conclusions. And I realize this message will have to start as a “grassroots” effort. My wish is for at least a critical mass of people prior to the second horseman riding out are aware, so that the media can more easily catch the word. Thanks for articulating this issue.

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