Here we are sixteen days until the presidential election in Iran, and events continue to unfold right on track with the Second Signpost.

I had written in this earlier post how Qalibaf was a likely favorite of Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) leadership, since he is formerly one of them. A news leak in the Iranian media now shows that indeed IRGC Quds Force Commander Qassem Suleimani will be voting for Mohammad Qalibaf.

If Suleimani, head of the Quds Force of the IRGC and answerable only to the supreme leader himself supports Qalibaf, chances are that much of the IRGC leadership does also. But it looks like a complication has come up with Qalibaf (also spelled “Ghalibaf”). A sound recording has been made known where Qalibaf is exposed as boasting about his small part in the suppression of some rioting back in 1999 and so is now engaged in damage control.

This is only speculation on my part, but if Qalibaf with the support of the IRGC ends up “winning” due to IRGC intervention, rioting in the streets could be much greater than that of 2009 after the last presidential election. And that just might result in the IRGC having to take over.

We will see. We know the second horn has grown up. We just don’t know what final form the second horn will take within the government of Iran, or how it will happen. But we know it will happen one way or another.

Categories: In The News, Signpost #2: Iran