Another Factor Against Assad: His Army is Shrinking

Syria is likely to be one of the four nations making up the future Sunni Confederacy which is the main player of the Third Signpost.  But for Turkey to ally with Syria, Assad has to go.  This is because Sunni Turkey would ally with a Sunni Syria, but not with the current Shia regime at the helm in Syria.

Syria's President Bashar al-Assad speaks during an interview in September 2014

Syria’s President Bashar al-Assad speaks during an interview in September 2014

In addition to various factors working against Assad, such as ISIS, Obama arming Syrian rebels, and Turkey figuring out how to remove Assad as well, another problem has been reported recently: Assad is running out of soldiers.  According to this article Assad’s army has fallen from 315,000 in March 2011 when the civil war started, to 150,000 now.  At that rate of decline (on average 3,600 soldiers lost per month), Assad will have no soldiers remaining by about the summer of 2018.

Of course losses like these are never linear, but these numbers over that time span points to a basic problem in mathematics which points to Assad being done very soon.  The manpower pool available from conscription is shrinking and there have been many casualties as this Reuters article reports.

Categories: In The News, Signpost #3: Four Nations

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4 replies

  1. This is a very interesting piece of information Mark! If Assad’s army is depleted by 2018, his regime may collapse before that time.

  2. It’s very worrying if Assad’s regime falls. This will then cause the demise of not only non-sunni minorities, but all christians in syria. The oldest community of christians in the Middle East will be gone forever!!

  3. I agree with you, Yohana. If Assad falls the Alawite Shias and all minorities and the Christian communities will be set to disappear. The process may be slower or faster depending on Iran’s policies when it invades. Above all let us keep in mind that Jesus did say that wars (the Second Signpost) and famine (the Third Signpost) would be the beginning of the birth pangs. Assad falling is preparation for the Third.

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