Second Signpost Alert: Trigger by Erdoğan?

A possible triggering event for a Signpost doesn’t happen very often. But when they do it is time to sit up and especially take notice. Turkish forces entered Syria in August and have been successfully combating IS and containing Kurdish forces.

Turkish tanks lining up on the border with Syria prior to August.

Turkish tanks lining up on the border with Syria before their incursion into Syria in August.

But now three months later, all of a sudden, Erdoğan has declared he will take out Assad, who is Iran’s Shia/Alawite ally in Syria, as this news story has reported. Turkish president Erdoğan is quoted as saying,

“We entered [Syria] to end the rule of the tyrant al-Assad who terrorizes with state terror. [We didn’t enter] for any other reason.”

This may be just saber-rattling rhetoric from Erdoğan, or it could be the real deal – an invasion by the Turks to remove Assad. If it is the latter, this could definitely be a trigger for the Second Signpost – the invasion of the Middle East by Iran.

A Turkish-Syrian checkpoint seen from the Syrian side.  Note the colors of the four horsemen.

A Turkish-Syrian checkpoint seen from the Syrian side. Note the colors of the four horsemen adorning the gate.

The Bible does not tell us the trigger for Iran to run out, but we should be watching. With Erdoğan’s declaration here, we have a possible trigger.

Categories: ALERT, In The News, Signpost #2: Iran

Tags: , , ,

7 replies

  1. May you live in interesting times, for sure!! Hey, Mark, any update on the new book or are you shelving that for now?

  2. Good question, James. Yes, an update is overdue.

  3. My inclination is to think Erdogan is talking his game and disguising the truth which is: He’s mostly concerned about the Kurds taking over and consolidating territory he doesn’t want them to have on the border of Turkey. The few comments I’ve seen from pres-elect Trump suggests he doesn’t want to do anything to butt heads with Russia over Syria. Once Iran understands that neither Russia or the US will interfere with their ambitions in the region, Iran will simply wait for a timely opportunity to strike. Since Erdogan is making more enemies than friends these days (including in Europe), he will eventually invite his own victimization while the Western powers + Russia stand aside in terms of their own official active involvement. Of course there is always involvement behind the scenes… but the Obama administrations failed covert and verbal efforts to oust Assad show a pattern which will likely be repeated by the Western and Russian superpowers. In sum: I think Erdogan lies; he cares about the political aspects of his power related to territory, not terrorism in Syria.

  4. Read your post a couple of days ago and got to thinking why another reason he is asserting this plan and that is he going along with the MB and their desire to topple Assad. Without any Obama alliance and Trump coming in, they need Erdogan more than ever to do this. Now I am not sure how much the MB gets along with Iran but I am thinking they too will trigger Iran.

  5. Good4u1,
    Actually, I believe the article should be called, “Iran’s Preparations Seem to be Almost Complete.” The path to run west is being made as easy as possible for Iran.

  6. Indeed, when the “Path to the Mediterranean”, that is gradually being cleared for years already, is free: from that path Iran can strike both North and South.

    The “TwoTower” article good4u1 linked to recognizes that just having that path will be very difficult to sustain: “Iran’s project to form a pan-Shi’ite army and establish hegemony over the region is almost complete. Shi’ites are part of it whether they like it or not. And the Sunnis are driven by the same forces of fear and violence. The result will be an endless war in a region that is already fragile. Not even partition would solve the problem, because the need for revenge and the desire for power will not be stopped by new artificial borders.”
    This sums up the second third signposts pretty well…

    Another sign that Iran’s “path to the west” is not and end-goal but a a means is shown by their ongoing preparation:
    ‘Iran’s continuing experimentation and development of ballistic missiles – a flagrant violation of Security Council resolution no. 2231 – is proving to be a much more threatening policy than its hibernate nuclear program. On Tuesday, Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps’ Air and Missile Commander, Brigadier General Amir Ali Haji Zadeh, announced an increase of ballistic missile production. “Iran has increased the missile accuracy and production based on the recommendations of the General Commander of the Armed Forces, Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei,” he said during a speech at the Imam Hussein Military University. The commander said Iranian authorities and experts were successful in using “innovative and shortcut methods” to produce these “inexpensive” missiles. In March, the Iranian Revolutionary Guards fired a missile at a distance of 1,400 kilometers, with a sign engraved in both Hebrew and Persian that read: “Israel should be wiped out of existence.” The Commander-in-Chief of the Revolutionary Guards Mohammad Ali Jafari and a number of senior military officials attended the ceremony that saw the firing of the missile. The military show of might represented a warning message to all the countries of the region, particularly since Iranian officials are always alluding to possible rocket attacks against other Arab countries.”‘

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