Day 46: When Might Things Get Worse?

By Mark Davidson on April 15, 2026 • ( 0 )

(15 April 2026) It is now Day 46 of the closure of the Strait of Hormuz.

If this is the beginning of the Second Signpost, and if it began March 2 with the closure of the Strait of Hormuz by the IRGC, then a pertinent question is, “When will the full pain of scarce gasoline and high fuel prices hit?”

The short answer is, the last half of May if certain things happen, or sooner than that if other things happen.

My Estimate

Yesterday, in this post, I wrote:

“How long will this holding pattern hold up for? I could be totally wrong, but I don’t see it holding past the end of May. The IRGC will get desperate at some point having used up most of its drones and missiles, or the world will have used up all its extra oil and the IRGC would see a special opportunity.”

The reason I said, “the end of May” is a matter of simple math. If the global inventory in storage on March 2 was indeed 1.2 billion barrels of oil, and we are experiencing a minimum shortage each day of 15 million barrels, that gives us 80 days from March 2, or May 21.

If the loss is greater than 15 million barrels per day, the date is sooner.

On or about May 21, then, the world will see the reality of an oil shortage with no more cushions.

Again, its just simple math.

Another Opinion

I ran across this article today titled “The Coming Oil Collision: Why Paper Prices Are a Dangerous Illusion,” by Mike Adams. It states perfectly the situation of oil reserves drawing down versus today’s paper price, and the foolishness of drawing down the Strategic Reserve as well as other inventories. Adams writes,

“We see this in the frantic releases from the Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR). In March 2026, President Trump authorized “the largest single drawdown since the reserve’s creation in the 1970s,” a 172-million-barrel dump intended to placate the paper market. This is a desperate move, not a strategic one. It is the monetary equivalent of burning your furniture to heat your house for one more night. Each barrel released from the SPR temporarily props up the paper price illusion but permanently depletes the nation’s emergency buffer, making the eventual physical reckoning even more severe.”

Mike Adams wrote further,

“The unprecedented SPR drawdowns, the frantic bidding for immediate delivery in Asia, and the sky-high physical premiums all point to one terrifying conclusion: we are running out of accessible, above-ground oil. By some projections from within the industry, we could face effective shortages by June.”

“By June” means some time during the end of May. Like maybe May 21 as I suggested.

Paper Prices Put Us All to Sleep

Americans and/or western Christians in general are asleep. Yes, gasoline is 40 percent higher in price, but so what, right? It’s not the end of the world as people say (actually that’s a sign that it might be). You won’t be able to buy quite as many of something else.

However, it is the release of extra oil from reserves and the manipulation of oil prices by the paper market that gives us all a sense of ease like nothing bad is really happening and dealing with Iran is not very different than dealing with just any tin-pot dictator of a small third world country.

But this is not some third world country. This is possibly Iran and the Second Signpost. This is the second horseman riding out and taking peace of mind from the earth.

As Mike Adams writes in the above article, if we all knew what the real oil price was and the drawdown of inventories occurring, we would be panicking now, but at least we would have a couple months to prepare and maybe get the oil industry a two-month head start in finding alternatives.

But now, the panic is delayed, and it will be delayed to the point that there will be no time to prepare. Our western society will be driving off a cliff.

At that point, you may see what Jesus spoke of in Matthew 24:6 (don’t scream in terror).

Conclusion

Since the regime’s absolute mission it lives for is to bring in the Mahdi, I get the sense that Iran will make its next move to destroy all the Arab oil infrastructure, when the IRGC can no longer keep the Strait of Hormuz closed, or when it can hurt the rest of the world the most.

Here is a prediction, but it is only a guess. If the IRGC can keep the Strait closed for several more weeks, it will go ahead and destroy the Arab oil infrastructure at the point that all extra inventories are gone and the price rises toward $200 per barrel. This would occur some time from my May 21, to Adams’ June 1.

If the Trump administration forces Iran’s hand prior to May 21 such that the Strait opens up and the IRGC cannot do anything about it, it will go ahead and destroy all the oil infrastructure.

Either way we don’t have much time. Unless, of course, this isn’t the Second Signpost and we have nothing to worry about. But I wouldn’t bet on it.

Keep watch.