Day 48: Tankers Testing the Waters

By Mark Davidson on April 17, 2026 • ( 0 )

(17 April 2026) It is now 10 pm MST April 17, or, 5 AM GMT, April 18. As of now, the Strait of Hormuz has been blocked for 48 days.

The Second Signpost began March 2, unless the oil starts flowing again from the Middle East allowing the world to restore the oil and chemical business.

Will the Strait Re-Open and For How Long?

Iran agreed in a deal with the US to open the Strait to all traffic, but the US will continue to blockade any tankers associated with Iran.

So the Strait might open for a while.

However, Trump said the Strait will stay open only until Wednesday if no peace deal is reached.

So the Strait might close again in a few days.

With these few days of a supposedly open Strait, eight tankers are going to test going through with full cargoes to see if they can go through.

Snapshot of lack of crude oil tanker traffic through Strait of Hormuz on April 15, 5 am GMT, 2026. From marinetraffic.com. Note the tankers starting to test the Strait.

Conclusion

We will see. Even if the Strait fully reopens it will take many weeks to a few months to get production going again in the Gulf countries since most of it was shut down. On the other hand, Iran could still destroy one of the tankers to cause fear again among insurers, shutting down the Strait again.

Keep watch.

In the meantime get those gardens going because even if the Strait re-opens, the fertilizer shortage is now baked in to the growing season.