No Good Exit for America at This Point (Day 66)

By Mark Davidson on May 5, 2026 • ( 0 )

(5 May 2026) It is now 10 pm MST May 5, or, 4 AM GMT, May 6. As of now, the Strait of Hormuz has been blocked for 66 days.

The idea of the Second Signpost having started March 2 is still in play. And it will remain in play until the regime is completely disbanded, or until the Ram runs out across the Middle East.

This commentary summarizes the potential plight for President Trump and the US military. I tend to agree with his conclusions.

The article states that there are basically only two options for America: (1) Launch a full-scale ground invasion and try to topple the Iranian government, or (2) Try to create the appearance of a win, and declare victory by claiming the objectives were met even when they clearly were not.

If Trump declares victory and leaves, that is saying that Iran won by simply surviving and continuing to hold the Strait of Hormuz hostage. In this scenario, the second horseman would take away more and more of the peace of mind of the earth,

If Trump decides to have America invade, it probably would not be successful simply because Iran is a mountainous country the side of the US east of the Mississippi River.

Either way, Iran will continue to choke one-fifth of the world’s oil from the world economy, and a third of its natural gas and half its fertilizer.

We can hear rhetoric about bombing the hell out of them, but the question is, bomb what? All the positions are hidden. It would take at least many months for an army of hundreds of thousands to comb over the Zagros Mountains to find hidden positions. Is that worth it? All the while the Petrodollar withers and dies?

Conclusion

It basically comes down to this.

If Trump declares “victory” and leaves, the Second Signpost will definitely come and it may come fast since the IRGC will have no one to oppose them.

If Trump decides to invade, but is not successful, the Second Signpost will come but may take longer to arrive.

A third option might be to keep the stalemate going, but this will allow the second horseman to spread his misery globally since the Strait will stay closed. Also, how long could the US maintain the stalemate?

Keep watch. With every passing day as it is now, the Second Signpost is increasing its chance of arriving.