A Peace Deal on the 39th Try? (Day 104)

By Mark Davidson on June 12, 2026 • ( 0 )

(12 June 2026) It is now 9 pm MST June 12, or, 3 AM GMT, June 13. We have been watching world and Mideast events, waiting for escalation of what looks to be the Second Signpost. It started with the closure of the Strait of Hormuz and may culminate with a full boot-on-the-ground invasion by Iran of much of the Middle East.

The Strait has been closed to normal traffic for 104 days. That’s 104 days of draining 12 to 15 million barrels of oil from the world, per day.

A Peace Deal?

News reports are saying the US and Iran are actually reaching a peace deal. We will see. And even if the deal is real, that doesn’t make it necessarily binding for Iran.

Supposedly a 14-point Memo of Understanding (MOU) was released by the IRGC as follows –

1) Immediate and permanent ceasefire on all fronts, including Lebanon.

2) US commitment not to interfere in Iran’s internal affairs and to respect Iran’s sovereignty, and to withdraw its forces from areas surrounding Iran.

3) Full lifting of the naval blockade within 30 days.

4) Reopening of the Strait of Hormuz within 30 days under Iranian arrangements.

5) Suspension of sanctions on Iranian oil, petrochemicals, and related exports, with full access to the resulting revenues.

6) The US and its allies to provide reconstruction plans for Iran worth at least $300 billion.

7) A 60-day negotiation period to reach a final agreement on nuclear issues and the complete removal of US primary and secondary sanctions, as well as related UN Security Council and IAEA measures.

8) Iran reaffirms its NPT commitment not to develop nuclear weapons.

9) During negotiations, the US will not deploy additional forces to the region or impose new sanctions.

10) Release of USD 24 billion in frozen Iranian assets during the 60-day negotiation period, with half made available before talks begin.

11) Establishment of a monitoring mechanism to oversee implementation of the agreement.

12) The final agreement will be endorsed by a UN Security Council resolution.

13) Final negotiations will begin only after the release of half of Iran’s frozen assets, suspension of oil sanctions, and lifting of the naval blockade.

14) The final deal will focus solely on uranium enrichment, enriched material, sanctions relief, and Iran’s economic reconstruction and Iran’s missile program and support for resistance groups are excluded from the agenda.

Conclusion

There are some sticking points if these 14 points are part of the peace deal.

Number 4 with Hormuz under Iranian control, and number 6 with the US paying back $300 billion in reparations seem unlikely. Numbers 7, 13, and 14 talk of a “final” deal as if this deal is not the final deal.

We will see.

Keep watch.