Diesel Supply Fragile

By Mark Davidson on August 29, 2026 • ( 0 )

(29 August 2026) We have been watching events centered on Iran and its regime, waiting for escalation of what looks to be the Second Signpost.

We have been watching since February 28. The Strait of Hormuz was mostly closed from March 2 to August 23 or so, being about 175 days. The Strait is sporadically open, and is under the control of the Iranian regime.

Diesel Status and the Second Horseman

Diesel fuel is the lifeblood that runs transportation, and thus supply chains, transporting goods and food. As it turns out, our diesel supply is a house of cards.

The Second Horseman’s first task according to Revelation 6:4 is “to take peace from the earth.” That peace is peace of mind, as in, when a family can provide food for their family every day there is peace of mind.

A shortage of diesel fuel would certainly chip away at the global peace of mind.

We keep finding out that it seems God has an agenda of judgment and discipline in order to bring millions of people back to Him. For example, with the famine to come in the spring there is not only a one-third cut off of global fertilizer, but drought in Germany and Japan, and a coming El Niño condition that will bring drought to much of the globe.

Likewise with the diesel production and supply here in the US, apparently diesel is walking a thin line.

This news story reports that to attempt to fill the gap in loss of diesel fuel globally due to the Strait of Hormuz closure, US refiners are running hot at near 100 percent capacity, and have been so since March. They do so to attempt to attempt to fill the gap in supply globally.

This makes for extremely profitable times by the refiners, but by “super refining” as the article calls it, refiners risk more failures, and failures that will take longer to repair due to the magnified effects of running “super.”

The article ends with,

“That creates a dangerous dilemma. The longer refining margins remain elevated, the greater the temptation for refiners to keep running flat out. But the harder they run, the greater the risk of failures that could remove even more fuel from an already stretched market.

For now, America’s refiners are serving as the world’s supplier of last resort. The danger is that the world has become so dependent on them that even a small disruption to their operations could tip an already fragile market into a genuine fuel crisis.”

Conclusion

For the moment, super refining allows US diesel production to slightly ease prices and possible panic.

However, the chance for a failure of a refinery is higher.

The “everything could go wrong” factor comes in where if Iran destroys the Arab oil facilities, which cripples supply chains for everything, than the effect of a failure at a US refinery is magnified.

Not only would diesel be cut back at the worst possible moment, it might take years to repair the problem if supply chains are broken.

Keep watch.