Well if you saw headlines from Iran about its election and its newest president, followers of this site might think, “What, neither Qalibaf nor Jalili is the new president?” Has the IRGC lost its power? Has Khameini lost control? Hardly.
In a surprise move both to this site and to many Iran observers, the only moderate candidate in the field of presidential candidates was allowed to be the winner of the election. In what is seen as a calculated move, supreme leader Khameini has opened the pressure valve from opposition by allowing the people to vote for who they really want – the only moderate candidate in the field. Hassan Rouhani will be a new name we will see in the news, as he has succeeded Ahmadinejad as the new seventh president of Iran.
I say “surprise move” because this is different from politics as usual. If we were to believe that things were to continue as business as usual as they have the last two elections in 2005 and 2009, and that the IRGC-supporting Fars News was correct, then right now Qalibaf and Jalili would be neck and neck going in to the second round on June 21. We would see revolts in the streets as the IRGC had stolen yet again another election.
But let us remember what it is we are waiting and watching to see happen next in the Signposts: the supreme leader’s power will be eclipsed by a newer power within the Iranian government.
I looked up, and there before me was a ram with two horns, standing beside the canal, and the horns were long. One of the horns was longer than the other but grew up later. (Daniel 8:3, NIV)
It can happen any number of ways. I had thought one possible way for this to happen would be by the IRGC continuing to use, and then elevating the presidency. But with Rouhani being allowed by Khameini to be president, and if Rouhani is truly moderate and outside the core of the IRGC, then for the IRGC to achieve what Daniel 8:3 says it must do, it will do so by some other means.
The defeat of Qalibaf or Jalili simply translates to the idea that the presidency is most likely out of the spotlight for being a central player when the second horn becomes the longer one. With Rouhani as president, the efforts of the IRGC may now be more veiled. And it reminds us that, yes, we can speculate any number of ways how an event might fulfill the next Daniel prophecy of the Signposts, but the best effort is recognizing the actual event that finally fulfills the next prophecy.
Categories: In The News, Signpost #2: Iran
Okay, so I am dense here. If the moderate candidate has been selected as the incoming President of Iran then what is the point of June 21 again? Who are they voting for on June 21?
June 21 is the date for the second round of elections – if needed; if two candidates were close enough in votes so they needed a run-off election. The Fars News Agency had said that Qalibaf and Jalili would need that. But Fars is a mouthpiece of the IRGC, and that story was just propaganda. And the scenario painted by Fars never even came true. Rouhani won in a landslide, like 80% of the vote to Qalibaf’s 16%. Of course the supreme leader and the IRGC could have conspired to make someone else president like they did in 2009, but the supreme leader decided to pacify the people and let the election run its free natural course.
Does this help?
Well, kinda. But if what you say is true and the moderate candidate won in a landslide, there is no run-off election on June 21. Why continue to talk as if there is going to be a run-off election on June 21 when this is not the case? So the elections are done and Rouhani is the incoming President, period. Right?
Could of course be another one of those huge red herrings Mark!!!
Correct, Julie. The talk of a June 21 election was only propaganda from Fars, and I was only mentioning it because thats what Fars News originally said. Because Rouhani has won, there will now be no runoff election. Apparently Iranian law says that if any one candidtae has a majprity he has won, and Rouhani has something like 51% of the vote with most votes counted. Rouhani is the new president.
Lol thats right Sharon. Our red herring detectors are getting sharper. We know that the supreme leader will be made second in power. With Rouhani as president things become even obscure and only God knows how it will happen. Of course thats probably what he intended all along.
I read that Rouhani was the chief negotiator for Iran on the nuclear issues. So assuming control of the nuclear weapons is the reason for the second horn growing, we may very well have our man. Also, moderate by Iranian standards is still rather extreme to the rest of the world.
Agreed, John. I also read from another analyst just today that the whole “moderate” thing is just a facade.