Perhaps you have heard of a new phrase being mentioned in financial news circles. The phrase is “black swan event.” The phrase was introduced by author and epistemologist Nassim Nicholas Taleb in 2001 regarding markets and finance. In his 2007 book The Black Swan, he applies the philosophy of the term beyond finance to all of society and the way the world works. Wikipedia defines the term “black swan event” as “a metaphor that describes an event that is a surprise (to the observer), has a major effect, and after the fact is often inappropriately rationalized with the benefit of hindsight.”
Examples of black swan events are the 9/11 attacks on U.S. soil, and the great 2004 tsunami that killed a quarter million people in southern Asia. To an average person there are three things that make an event a black swan event. First it is unexpected, i.e. it is something that the average person cannot be convinced could happen. Second it has a major or extreme impact in which society is changed tremendously. Third, attempts are made to explain it as being obvious with hindsight, but people are fooling themselves that it could ever be obvious.
So what do black swan events have to do with the Four Signposts? Readers of my book, Hidden In Plain Sight would probably be able to answer this. Here in 2013 the world has painted itself into a unique corner. The western world’s banking system is on life support with the value of its assets being exaggerated to counter the staggering amounts of bad investments known as derivatives. The entire world is completely dependent on oil for everything from food to transportation to consumer goods, and the production of that oil kept at a price that keeps the world economy humming.
A worst case black swan event could make a shambles of the finance industry, evaporate people’s wealth, cause day-to-day expenses to soar, and therefore make living life just much more difficult on a global basis. Many have proposed that a global worst case black swan event could be a nuclear war, an EMP attack, a solar storm, repeat of the 2008 financial crisis, or even an asteroid strike.
Although no one knows if any of these things might happen, there is an imminent event to occur that End-time Four Signpost theory predicts will happen. To those who do not know the Four Signposts, this coming event will be the mother of black swan events, both for day-to-day life on Main Street, and for the financial markets on Wall Street.
The Second of Four Signposts is about to begin. According to Signpost theory Iran will militarily invade much of the Middle East. They will occupy the oilfields of the Gulf which provide fully one quarter of all the world’s day-to-day oil production. They will stop the sale of this oil in U.S. dollars ending the U.S. petrodollar system. The ceasing of oil production will probably quadruple the price overnight. The ending of the petrodollar system ends the U.S. government’s ability to borrow at will. Interest rates will soar causing the economy to completely tank, and if rates are suppressed the dollar goes to nothing wiping out everyone’s U.S. dollar-based wealth.
Let’s look at the definition of the black swan event again to see how it matches this scenario. First, it is unexpected. No one except a few are even considering an invasion by Iran.
Second, there is the huge impact on the world. Think about what the things in the paragraph before last and what it would mean for people. There are two systemic disasters here – the loss of oil for the world, and oblivion for the U.S. dollar. Millions of people in the U.S. dependent on government will have no support. Since just about everything is made from oil or depends on oil their prices will rise as well. Countries like Japan, Taiwan and South Korea whose oil comes almost entirely from the Gulf will be in desperate straits as they bid up other sources of oil to attempt to mitigate a true and complete disaster in their countries. In a nutshell, cutting off of one quarter of the world’s oil supply is a perfect storm – really the greatest of black swan events. How do we know this will happen? In addition to the ram running out in Daniel 8, the rider of the second horse is directly connected to this event. Of this horseman, Revelation 6:4 says, “Its rider was given power to take peace from the earth and to make men slay each other.” The Greek word for “peace” means loss of security and loss of peace of mind. This scenario would indeed cause loss of peace of mind on a global scale.
Third, people will try to rationalize its cause as being obvious, but they will be seen as disingenuous since only a handful of us saw it coming, and even refused to believe it. Today, when I mention such an event to the typical person they say the U.S. would never allow it to happen. But Daniel 8 says the Persian ram will do all it wants to do, and what it wants to do is spread chaos to bring about their Mahdi.
These end times can be thought of as a series of black swan events, where the Second Singpost is merely the first one. Who would know that Turkey would lead a confederacy to establish a great nation while conquering Iran? Who would know that the true Antichrist would emerge from the shattered pieces of this great nation? Those who are watching the Signpost interpretation of the Bible, on the way to the Tribulation, that’s who.
Categories: The Signpost Perspective