So the Iran Nuclear Deal was done on July 14. Iran and the P5+1 nations finished negotiations and now the tentative agreement is to be debated and voted on in the participating countries.
You have heard it said from conservative circles and even from me that this deal is a bad deal. But Obama said that this nuclear deal with Iran stops that country in every way from getting the bomb, but that is simply not the case. So now that the dust has settled and the ink has dried I examined the text of the JCPOA (Joint Comprehension Plan of Action) first hand to see exactly why this is a bad deal. A pdf of the text is at this website. There is a link to the right on the site that directs you to get the original pdf.
I found four weaknesses in the deal that would allow Iran to continue forward to the bomb. It would be laughable if the situation wasn’t so serious as to how, well, “stupid” is the word that comes to mind, the P5+1 were in giving Iran such slack. The leadership of the United States for maybe the last hundred years has gullibly thought that other nations’ leadership thinks the same way we do. In the preamble this statement on page 16 caught my attention –
“28. The E3/EU+3 and Iran commit to implement this JCPOA in good faith and in a constructive atmosphere, based on mutual respect, and to refrain from any action inconsistent with the letter, spirit and intent of this JCPOA that would undermine its successful implementation.”
Mutual respect? Iran has no respect for any nation unless it is led by good militant Shia Muslims. Iran’s leadership has plenty of respect for Syria, and Iraq and maybe Lebanon and Yemen but that is pretty much it. I would hate to play poker with the Iranian delegates there in Vienna as they must be the world experts in keeping a straight face.
Anyway, here is my list of four problems:
The first problem brings back to mind the days of Saddam Hussein and his hiding the WMD that he seemed to have in his facilities, keeping U.N. inspectors waiting. Here is the text of the agreement from page 43 –
“78. If the absence of undeclared nuclear materials and activities or activities inconsistent with the JCPOA cannot be verified after the implementation of the alternative arrangements agreed by Iran and IAEA…at the specified locations within 14 days of the IAEA’s original request for access, Iran, in consultation with the members of the Joint Commission, would resolve the IAEA’s concerns through necessary means agreed between Iran and IAEA. In the absence of an agreement, the members of the Joint Commission, by consensus or by a vote of 5 or more of its 8 members, would advise on the necessary means to resolve the IAEA’s concerns. The process of consultation with, and any action by, the members of the Joint Commission would not exceed 7 days, and Iran would implement the necessary means within 3 additional days.”
Wow! Do you see that? Iran gets a total of 24 days to hide and cover-up and deceive the world that no, absolutely not, there is no violation of the agreement in that next building, or that next room, or that next hidden secret area. First up then is the old problem of delaying and putting off. We will come back to this Item #78 later as it also contains another problem.
This one is another doozy. It’s sort of like allowing an enemy’s friends to make sure the enemy is doing the right thing. We have on page 40 –
“67. Iran will increase the number of designated IAEA inspectors to the range of 130-150 within 9 months from the date of the implementation of the JCPOA, and will generally allow the designation of inspectors from nations that have diplomatic relations with Iran, consistent with its laws and regulations.”
It will have inspectors from countries only with which it has diplomatic relations. So let’s review the list of nations involved. The P5 include the permanent members of the U.N. Security Council – United States, Russia, China, United Kingdom, and France. The two nations’ inspectors I would trust most – the US and UK – have no diplomatic relations with Iran. Sorry boys, you don’t get to have any inspectors. But Russia and China who are not only friends of Iran but trade partners and strategic partners do have diplomatic relations. France does too. The “+1” of the “P5+1” is Germany/EU. Germany also has diplomatic relations with Iran. So if France and Germany who are our allies have a say, it comes down to Russia and China vs. France and Germany, with no US or UK. So it seems like the inspectors are “stacked.” I can see the scenario where the Russian inspectors actually help the Iranians by telling them where the inspectors are going to inspect next so the Iranians have way more than 24 days.
I found it interesting that the next day this news story came out. It seems the supreme leader declared that he vowed “to defy American policies in the region despite a deal with world powers over Tehran’s nuclear programme.” So indeed the supreme leader is making it clear it wants to keep its lack of diplomatic relations with the United States. Kerry called this development disturbing. Talk about slow.
Back to page 43, Item 78, there is,
“In the absence of an agreement, the members of the Joint Commission, by consensus or by a vote of 5 or more of its 8 members, would advise on the necessary means to resolve the IAEA’s concerns.”
So in the middle of those 24 days the Joint Commission is going to decide and vote whether there is even a problem where Iran is holding back evidence. And the vote must be 5 of 8 or better. The Joint Commission (Item ix, page 4) will include a member from each of the six countries involved and two third party country representatives. So it’s already 2 versus 2 – the US and UK versus Russia and China. So it’s a matter of seeing how the vote goes with the remaining members. And remember even if the US gets the vote it wants, Iran has been moving things around for 24 days.
This problem comes from what is missing. It dawned on me as I saw requirement after requirement looking at uranium stockpiles, uranium enrichment, and uranium processing. I saw nothing about inspecting suspected bomb laboratories, bomb factories or bomb assembly areas. Another “wow!”
Well, there you have it. It doesn’t matter that Iran has to reduce its enrichment of uranium or even its uranium stockpiles. With friends in places where it counts, and plenty of warning, and no checking of the places where they actually load the uranium and make the bombs, it seems to me that Iran can still get the bomb. And with the bomb will come the Second Signpost and the Persian ram of Daniel 8 where “no animal could stand against him, and none could rescue from his power. He did as he pleased and became great.” Nukes allow that sort of thing.