After what seemed like a few weeks of relative silence in the Middle East, we had two news events this past week. Many of the Saudi-led league of Sunni nations cut off diplomatic relations with Qatar, and just today Islamic State (IS) militants made two attacks in Iran.
Watching the Signposts
People who know the Signpost interpretation have asked a good question: what does this mean regarding Iran and the Second Signpost? Many readers are wondering if this might be the trigger for the Iranian invasion. Granted, Iran could use any excuse, but this one can likely be added to other excuses Iran has already made. My thanks to all those who are watching with me and to those who have emailed me about the attacks in Tehran.
The next major event according to the Signpost interpretation of Bible prophecy is Iran’s invasion of the Middle East. Probably the most-watched-for event is the beginning of this great invasion: what action might trigger it, how might it start, what conditions are needed, and so forth.
So what do the Qatari diplomatic crisis and the IS attacks in Iran mean for the Signposts?
The answer is, these are likely minor events.
Starting with Qatar, let’s think about these things from the Iranian regime’s perspective. You think your religion is true and you and your country of Iran have a two-fold mission which is of absolute importance because it is your god’s will. You must spread your version of how a Muslim society operates where one shepherd (the supreme leader) leads the people until Mahdi comes, but such spreading will cause chaos, which will be the very thing that brings Mahdi out.
You have the IRGC, the Basij, rockets galore, and even some nukes (maybe), and you must carefully and effectively use that against the entire Middle East, which includes all the Sunni nations like Saudi Arabia, northern Iraq, and even Turkey. You fear Turkey and/or the United States could stop your plans. You don’t fear Israel because as long as you give them a wide enough berth they shouldn’t enter the war; this is a Muslim-only war. And you will have only one shot at this, much like Hitler had only one shot at world domination. So what do you do?
You engage the other Shia populations in the Middle East (Lebanon, Syria, Iraq, and Yemen) to be ready for Iranian hegemony, and wait until just the right moment strategically where the risk of failure is minimized.
Therefore, Iran will begin the Second Signpost when it is ready and not before. It may not even need an excuse or trigger – we may find the regime just starts it.
With that said, what about the Qatari diplomatic “crisis”? Saudi Arabia thinks itself the ruler of the Arab and Sunni world. Realistically though, geopolitics say Turkey is the leader of the Sunnis and Egypt is the leader of the Arabs. And the whole Saudi-led coalition is rather toothless compared to Iran.
Remember that war exercise held in northern Arabia a year ago or so? Every other nation outside Arabia that participated sent only a few hundred troops. That false report that went around about 350,000 was just so much baloney: barely 20,000 troops participated.
The Saudis are looking for fellow Sunni nations that will stand with them against what they think are the terrorists: the Iranian Shias, and all other Shias working with Iran like Assad in Syria and the Houthis in Yemen. The Saudis know they are undermanned compared to Iran and so are hoping many little countries will join them militarily.
So now Qatar has been showing sympathy towards Iran. The Saudis then must make a show of this and cut off little Qatar. As if anything the Saudis do carries a lot of weight. The Saudis are acting like they are brave. The Saudis are scared of Iran.
There is one thing of significance with Qatar: it sits on and produces 13% of the world’s natural gas. It shares a major gas field with Iran. The Saudis have blockaded Qatari ships, cutting off a fraction of available natural gas exports. This might push up natural gas prices but the world is awash in the stuff already. A blockade might force Qatar to run out of money and force them to play nice with the Saudis.
We will see, but for now this situation with Qatar is rather insignificant. Iran has already had the Saudis in their crosshairs for decades.
Islamic State Attacks
After so many IS attacks in places like Paris, London, and Brussels, it was surprising to hear about attacks in Tehran. Many western countries are soft targets. But Iran is different. The IRGC and Basij will either shoot on site or throw them into Evin prison where they will never be seen again.
We saw the most zealous Sunni organization attack the most zealous Shia country. They didn’t get far with Basij and IRGC troops around.
Iran is archenemies with any great Sunni power (e.g. Turkey) and any militant Sunni group (e.g. IS, Al-Qaeda, Taliban, etc.). Period. IS has been one of Iran’s top enemies since IS began. Iran has been fighting IS in the field in Syria and Iraq and has been using the experience to sharpen its own methods of fighting. So now an attack in Tehran proper doesn’t really change anything. IS is in the Iranian regime’s crosshairs already.
The regime already knows it must destroy IS; whether sooner, or later during the Second Signpost, doesn’t matter.
The regime also is blaming the Saudis for the attacks since they accuse the Saudis of funding IS. But the regime has accused the Saudis of allowing the trampling of hundreds in Mecca, and of mismanagement of the holy sites. The Iranian regime will use every opportunity to continue to demonize the Saudis.
Potential Major Events
So what might constitute a major event sparking the Second Signpost? One might be an attempted invasion of Iran by American troops. Another is a possible Balkan war tying down the Turkish military. Another would be solid proof the Iranians have nuclear bombs. Yet another would be the IRGC building up in Khuzestan.
Attacks on Iranian soil by an already hated enemy, or a shell game using pawns, do need to be noted for potential developments, especially if the regime uses one of them as the official excuse to invade, but for now these events are noise.
In the meantime, keep a level head, and thank God that the Second Signpost hasn’t started yet, so we can continue to get ready for the hard times to come.