“Unprecedented”: Preview of Second Signpost!

At first I couldn’t believe it. Wow, what a news event! But I only saw the story on Zero Hedge. That site is fairly reliable but one never knows if it might be fake news. But having seen the story later on Fox and CNN it was real.

There was a coordinated drone attack on Saudi oil facilities knocking out over half of Saudi Arabia’s daily oil output!! The largest single oil processing facility in Saudi Arabia, and in the world for that matter, was taken out.

Major explosion at oil processing plant in eastern Saudi Arabia. Screen grab from this news report.

Oil Production Loss Like 1973/1979

The Saudis lost production of 5.7 million barrels per day (bpd). That’s just over half of Saudi Arabia’s total production (of 9.8 m bpd), and a (5.7 m loss / 90 m world total) 6.3% total of world production. The last time the world saw a 6% loss was in 1973 and 1979. Each of those two times resulted in a doubling of the oil price. The oil price closed Friday at $55 to $60 per barrel. Might it double this time too? The answer is yes if the production stays offline for weeks or more.

Some Things Learned About the Second Signpost

Yes this would be a full preview of the Second Signpost if the price doubles. This news story also tells us a few things about the Second Signpost, Iran’s coming great invasion of the Middle East.

First: Confirmation of the Regime’s Strategy

This confirms Daniel Revisited, chapter 10, that says one of the regime’s goals is to cause chaos. If oil prices open Monday morning quite a bit higher with financial markets falling, that would be a small taste of the effects of the Second Signpost to come. The regime does indeed want to stop oil production. This attack proves it. But instead of a 6% drop, we could see a 20-25% drop.

US Secretary of State Pompeo tweeted that Iran attacked the world’s energy supply. You bet it did. And the Second Signpost will bring a much larger attack.

This initial attack is likely an exercise by the IRGC in making the fastest and most efficient attacks when the Second Signpost begins.

Smoke from the oil fires seen from space, emanating from the north end of the Ghawar oil field. Photo NASA.

Second: Events Will Escalate Until Second Signpost Started

Pompeo called the attack “unprecedented.” That’s for sure. I can’t think of any other single attack on a country that would knock out half of that country’s oil production. Since April of this year we have seen a steady escalation of attacks on oil production. Tankers have been hijacked. Oil over pipelines has been interrupted. This is huge, though.

I believe it is safe to say that the Iranian regime will continue to escalate until there is a reaction from the US and its allies.

Third: The Reaction Monday Morning

If the oil market believes the knocked out production will stay out for weeks, we may very well see the price increase from the current $55-60 to around $100. We will see. If production can be brought back within a week we may only see a 10% increase or so. However, if the increase is large due to longer-term losses, this would confirm the idea that the oil price increase will be tremendous once the Second Signpost begins for real.

Summary

With this attack on Saudi oil facilities, I believe we have seen a preview of some aspects of the Second Signpost. Yes, the oil production in the Middle East will be attacked and stopped. The ram will charge and surprise. Second, the Second Signpost will likely begin with an escalation crossing over a line before the US responds. And third, we should watch the oil price for hints of what is to come.

We are getting closer to the Second Signpost. Be ready.



Categories: In The News, Signpost #2: Iran

Tags: , , ,

7 replies

  1. “If the oil market believes the knocked out production will stay out for weeks, we may very well see the price increase from the current $55-60 to around $100.”

    http://news.trust.org/item/20190915103023-kawk0

    https://apnews.com/269744b35e16422fa746b0c1504ceb4f

    FTA: “Crude oil futures shot up 9.5% to $60 as trading opened Sunday evening in New York, a dramatic increase. A spike in oil prices could have negative effects for the global economy. Saudi Arabia has promised to fill in the cut in production with its reserves, but has not said how long it will take to repair the damage.”

  2. As weeks and months go by, Trump May be less likely to want to have it out with Iran. Starting a war now especially with elections next year, may be one reason Iran will have little opposition.But maybe a sinking of a carrier or some other huge event like that will cause the president to call all troops home, then also Iran could do a blitz in the Middle East.Actually bringing troops home was one of his promises last election and many look Good on him.Regardless things are heating up,as the president said he is locked and loaded..

  3. Trump has already announce release of oil reserves.
    https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.cbsnews.com/amp/news/trump-authorizes-release-emergency-oil-reserve-after-attack-saudi-oil-sites-2019-09-15/

    It definitely looks like Iran is taking a defined strategy to manipulate the markets just before elections this next year.

    Definitely will be watching in terms of what will happen next, Mark.

  4. Notice where the bulk of Saudi oil infrastructure is:

    Notice where some of the attacks were:

    Iran Front Page News, which is licensed by Iran’s Ministry of Culture and Islamic Guidance, published this 2019-09-16 article:
    https://ifpnews.com/saudi-says-damaged-oil-facilities-cannot-be-fixed-overnight
    Since the article assigns blame for the attack on “Yemeni drones,” I find it amusing that the article has a detailed photo of some of the places that were struck:

    Wouldn’t this photo have been taken by a drone? And why would Iran proudly show off how precisely “Yemeni drones” can function? “See image 2” is displayed but no image 2 included, indicating “we know more than we are telling.” An in-your-face taunt is also displayed by the words “approximately 17 points of impact.” This mocks Qanon (Q is the 17th letter of the English alphabet and the signature of Qanon posts, which are part of a military intelligence operation that supports President Trump). POTUS tweets can be accessed through https://qmap.pub/ (POTUS tweets and Q posts have sometimes been coordinated in subject matter and timing).

  5. just read this this morning. Iran seized another tanker in the Strait of Hormuz.

    https://www.express.co.uk/news/world/1178571/iran-news-iran-oil-tanker-Strait-of-Hormuz-gulf-saudi-arabia-uk-us

  6. Iran seizes another oil tanker in Strait of Hormuz as Gulf crisis erupts:

    https://www.express.co.uk/news/world/1178571/iran-news-iran-oil-tanker-Strait-of-Hormuz-gulf-saudi-arabia-uk-us

    FYI, gas prices in our area haven’t gone up yet. Gasbuddy is a good place to check for your area.

  7. In my September 16 comments about the photo of damaged oil facilities in Saudi Arabia (that I found at Iran Front Page News) I made several suggestions that I now know to be false. On September 18, the following article, which has more complete photos of the damage, appeared in Islamic World News:
    http://www.english.iswnews.com/7227/images-detailed-images-of-the-damage-at-the-abqaiq-and-khurays-facilities/
    Scroll down on that page to see larger images.
    1. The satellite images are from United States satellites, not Iranian drones.
    2. They include the “image 2” missing in Iran Front Page News, plus photos from another site in Saudi Arabia that was damaged.
    3. The captions put in the photos were by Americans, not Iranians. The “approximately 17 points of impact” was not a mocking of Qanon by Iranians, but a wry comment by an American official familiar with Q (Q is the 17th letter of the English alphabet).



Leave a Reply

Fill in your details below or click an icon to log in:

WordPress.com Logo

You are commenting using your WordPress.com account. Log Out /  Change )

Google photo

You are commenting using your Google account. Log Out /  Change )

Twitter picture

You are commenting using your Twitter account. Log Out /  Change )

Facebook photo

You are commenting using your Facebook account. Log Out /  Change )

Connecting to %s

%d bloggers like this: