Tahrir 2019, Tiananmen 1989, and the Second Signpost

Protests in and around Tahrir (Liberation) Square in central Baghdad in Iraq, are now entering their fourth week.

Tens of thousands of young Iraqis are currently protesting local corruption and Iranian influence, occupying Tahrir Square in central Baghdad.

A reader sent me a link of this YouTube news report of the current status of the protests. The question asked about the report was might Iraq and its government change from the system started with the force that caused the lion to stand and its mind be changed.

The Tahrir Protest

One of the protesters’ gripes is the corruption of government officials and another is interference in Iraqi affairs by Iran.

The roots of the protest seem to be purely nationalistic and not sectarian as most of the protests are carried about by Shias, and Iran is Shia. At time 00:47 in the video the question is asked of the crowd, “Are you Iraqi?” at which the crowd erupts in cheers.

The reasons for the protest are 1) politician corruption, 2) Iran interference, and 3) the lousy economy with high unemployment.

Protests, if allowed to carry on too long, have a chance of snowballing into an all-out revolution. On the other end of a revolution, the government may change quite a bit as in France in 1789, or Russia in 1917.

Up to this point I thought of the Tahrir Square protest as just more violence and unrest in Iraq—the 2003 overthrow of Saddam, the 2006 Surge, and the war with ISIS most recently. However, the reasons for the protests and their chance to roll into a revolution got me thinking.

Where else have we heard of a protest in a square, by young people, where the protestors wanted to end politicians’ corruption, end a Party’s interference, and improve a lousy economy. Oh, that’s right, it was at Tiananmen Square in central Beijing in 1989.

Tahrir and Tiananmen

Too young to remember Tiananmen Square? If you Google the single word “Tiananmen” and go to Images, you will see several websites with the same picture that you may have seen before: the lone “tank man,” presumably a student, temporarily holding up a column of tanks as the Chinese military was rolling in and about to massacre thousands out of the crowd of a million. Here is some video.

Televised all over the world, Chinese protesters and the world held its collective breath for a few moments as a single citizen held off a column of tanks.

Can Tiananmen and Tahrir be compared as equivalent? I believe so. Granted, Tiananmen Square has about 20 times the area of Tahrir Square and so can hold 20 times the people. Tahrir may have 50,000 people and Tiananmen had a million (a ratio of 1:20). But remember, China had 28 times the population of Iraq today, and the reasons for the protests are basically the same. Both squares are also in the center of the respective capital cities. In other words, the Tahrir protest of Iraq in 2019, is roughly proportionally in size and importance to Iraq as the Tiananmen protest of China in 1989 was to China.

Daniel 7:4 does not mention any other form of government of Iraq, except as the lion under Saddam, and as the standing lion that was forced in 2005. So either this protest will result in a) concessions by Iraqi politicians and things change to a degree without changing the democratic parliamentary system in place since 2005, or, b) a powerful military force moves in ending the protests just as in Tiananmen Square, and the next Signpost may be in play.

What military force would move in? Iraqi militias have already caused hundreds of casualties but the protests go on. So what is the alternative? Could the force be the IRGC and the start of the Second Signpost?

If the IRGC moves in to merely quell the protests, resentment among the protesters would only increase. The IRGC would have to permanently move in and counter the increased resentment. But that’s exactly what the Second Signpost will entail: IRGC occupying countries, there being resentment in the local populations, and the IRGC being heavy-handed causing the great slayings of Revelation 6:4, 8, just like ISIS did to its captive populations in the last few years.

Conclusion

Some fellow watchmen in this prophetic community thought the Turkish invasion of northern Syria to kill Kurds might trigger the Second Signpost. Yes, it was possible. At the time I wasn’t as convinced. In retrospect, compared to the current Tahrir protest, I would have given the Signpost being triggered by Turkey maybe a 10-20% chance.

I mention this only because as a point of comparison, this current Tahrir protest has, I believe, a greater chance of triggering the Second Signpost. (And as this community grows, there will be some differences of opinion in what we are watching, and for those joining in with their views and alerts I am thankful. We, as a body of watchmen, can serve the Church better.)

I see these protests in Tahrir Square as having a much stronger chance of triggering the next Signpost, perhaps as much as a 50-60% chance currently. If the protest is allowed to continue and grow, that chance will also grow.

Why is the Tahrir protest a better trigger than the Turkish invasion? Northern Syria is much further out from Iran, but Baghdad is much closer to Iran’s doorstep, and would also be the jumping off point for the Ram’s charges to the north and the west. Also, the Iranian regime would not want to lose its current grip on the south half of Iraq, while the IRGC currently present in the southwest parts of Syria has yet to occupy northern Syria.



Categories: In The News, Signpost #2: Iran, The Signpost Perspective

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6 replies

  1. This is brilliant. Thanks for keeping us informed and helping us understand bible prophecies, I think you have Sussed it out with the Ram.
    Shalom Mark.

  2. 2019-11-15 https://ifpnews.com/president-iran-not-after-an-empire “President of Iran Hassan Rouhani says Tehran is by no means seeking to create an empire, stressing that Iran’s regional clout arises from the Islamic Republic’s influence on the hearts and minds.”

    Then why has Iran been increasing the range of its missiles?

    2017-11-26 https://ifpnews.com/iran-vows-boost-range-missiles-europe-turns-threat “An Iranian top commander has warned that the Islamic Republic will increase the range of its missiles to more than 2,000 km if it finds Europe has turned into a threat to the country.”

    2018-02-10 https://ifpnews.com/us-bases-mideast-within-range-iran-missiles-top-general “Iran has managed to promote its military capabilities in spite of the US sanctions, and is now capable enough of targeting America’s bases in the region, said the IRGC Lieutenant Commander Brigadier General Hossein Salami.”

    2018-07-25 https://ifpnews.com/irgc-to-equip-su-22-fighter-jets-with-long-range-cruise-missiles “Commander of the Islamic Revolution Guards Corps (IRGC) Aerospace Force says experts at his division have successfully overhauled and upgraded 10 Russian-made Sukhoi Su-22 fighter jets and plans to equip them with cruise missile that have a range of 1,500 km.”

    2018-10-16 https://ifpnews.com/irgc-navy-has-ballistic-missiles-with-700km-range-commander “A senior commander of the Islamic Revolution Guards Corps says the IRGC Navy has been equipped with ballistic missiles that can hit their targets from a distance of 700 kilometres.”

    2019-03-17 https://ifpnews.com/all-occupied-territories-within-range-of-hezbollahs-missiles-irgc “The top commander of Iran’s Islamic Revolution Guards Corps (IRGC) says all parts of the Palestinian territories occupied by the Zionist regime of Israel are within the range of the missiles of Lebanese resistance group Hezbollah.”

    2019-09-15 https://ifpnews.com/us-targets-within-range-of-iranian-missiles-irgc “A senior Iranian commander has warned the US against making any stupid move in the region, saying that all US bases and vessels as far as 2,000 kilometers away are within the range of Iranian missiles.”

    Prophetic statements in Revelation 6:4, Daniel 7:5, and Daniel 8:3-4, prove that Rouhani speak with forked tongue.

  3. In the words of the late Arte Johnson who passed a couple weeks ago…….Very Interesting!

    I had no idea that this was going. It’s interesting to note that the Shias are leading the protests. Thanks for making us aware of this Mark!

  4. Tasnim News Agency, which supports Iran’s government, has an English version that I daily scan. It has just published a short article https://www.tasnimnews.com/en/news/2019/11/16/2141345/mass-production-of-laser-cannons-starts-in-iran . The photo in the article depicts a USA Navy laser cannon. That particular image is taken from a video showing how laser cannons work.

    This shows how missile packs on IRGC fast attack boats can be blown off before they launch against USA Navy ships. The video also shows how approaching drones can be blasted out of the sky.

    However, the article states: “Back in March, Commander of the Islamic Revolution Guards Corps (IRGC) Navy Rear Admiral Ali Reza Tangsiri said the Navy has developed a weapon to beat the American anti-drone laser weapon system.” This refers to https://www.tasnimnews.com/en/news/2019/03/03/1960319/irgc-develops-weapon-to-counter-us-anti-drone-laser-system . How Iran acquired laser cannon technology and countermeasures might be disturbing to learn, but Iran now has the military capabilities it needs to fulfill the Bible prophecies discussed in “Daniel Revisited.”

  5. So what do you think about Russia building up is military in Libya?

  6. Thomas,
    Nations like Libya which are outside of the immediate Middle East will have a minor role until we get into the last Signpost. With that in mind, Russia may be deploying troops to help one side of the civil war in Libya, but this is not significant.

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