Mixed Signals from the Strait

By Mark Davidson on June 25, 2026 • ( 0 )

(25 June 2026) It is now 10 pm MST June 25, or, 4 AM GMT, June 26. We have been watching world and Mideast events, waiting for escalation of what looks to be the Second Signpost.

The Strait of Hormuz was closed for 112 days. It has now been open for five days.

Mixed Signals

In the last few days, the number of ships has been increasing that go through the Strait of Hormuz (as observed at marinetraffic.com). Today, it was up to 77 ships. This is the highest number in one day since the war started and maybe half of a typical day before the war.

Snapshot of lack of crude oil tanker and cargo ship traffic through Strait of Hormuz on June 25, 5 am GMT, 2026. From marinetraffic.com.

However, as this news report states, the IRGC attacked a Singaporean cargo ship, damaging its bridge.

Conclusion

Thankfully no one was killed in the attack. My guess is this was done by the IRGC to keep the situation on edge, so that the regime would not be seen as something that had become completely peaceful during these 60 days of talks. It’s to keep the tension up while Iran kills time until the fall before ratcheting up the Second Signpost.