China’s Oil Status, and Trump’s “Massive” Attack

By Mark Davidson on July 23, 2026 • ( 0 )

(23 July 2026) It is now 10 pm MST July 23, or, 4 AM GMT, July 24. We have been watching events centered on Iran and its regime, waiting for escalation of what looks to be the Second Signpost. We have been watching since February 28.

The Strait of Hormuz has been closed for 145 days. A few oil tankers in the Strait caught fire yesterday from Iranian missiles.

US Attacks

The US is attacking Iran for what is now the 13^th day in a row. Trump has also been making threats of a “massive attack” that is coming.

Global Oil Storage

The global storage of oil of 1.2 billion barrels has been mostly emptied due to the closure of the Strait for four months.

The opposite is true of China’s oil storage.

China’s Oil

This ZeroHedge piece reports that China has a long-term strategy for dealing with the oil shortages during the Iran War.

China has “three levers” to navigate the oil shortage:

Drawing down fuel inventories,
switching to coal and renewables,
and concentrating production cuts in oil- and gas-intensive industries.

China has had success with levers 2 and 3. Because of this, China has a shortfall of only 3.5 million barrels per day.

Since it is estimated that China has avoided using up its storage for the most part, China still has at least 1.3 billion barrels in storage. If the shortfall in China continues at the same level, China has enough oil for the next several months.

It’s almost as if China was planning and bracing itself for this situation.

Conclusion

It seems China may be the least or last affected nation to lose peace of mind due to the second horseman.

I would say the US might also be last, but it will likely be affected not so much by oil shortages, but by loss of the petrodollar, making the US poor, before China becomes desperate for oil.

Trump’s timing and level of rigor for any upcoming attack could very well decide when the Second Signpost begins in earnest.

Keep watch.