(24 July 2026) It is now 10 pm MST July 24, or, 4 AM GMT, July 25. We have been watching events centered on Iran and its regime, waiting for escalation of what looks to be the Second Signpost. We have been watching since February 28.
The Strait of Hormuz has been closed for 146 days. A few oil tankers in the Strait are on fire as a result of Iranian missiles.
President Trump, in this Newsmax article, claims that talks with Iran are getting more serious so there may be a holding off of any escalation for the time being.
Conclusion
As we have seen for the last two months, there have been cycles of escalation with more attacks from both sides, and then pausing and calming down.
It looks like we are coming into the calming down part of the cycle.
The IRGC is likely driving these cycles in order to both keep the global storage low by closing the Strait with attacks on tankers, and then letting the world economy breathe a little to keep things alive until this fall when the IRGC can invade the Muslim nations in the Mideast. The taking out of the Arab oil facilities could happen any time, though.
So if this calm period lasts a least a few days, that is likely more time to prepare spiritually and physically.
Keep watch.
Categories: In The News, Signpost #2: Iran, World in the End Times
THE FOUR SIGNPOSTS 
Until now the US Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR) could only be emptied until it had 250 million barrels left. Because:
1. The Department of War wanted to keep some for a future big war, for instance against China.
2. The older salt domes containing oil can only be drained once, and then they collapse irreparably.
3. The newer salt domes containing oil can only be drained to a certain level if you want to refill later; below that level these too will collapse irreparably.
If all these limits would be observed, the SPR would be empty in a week from now, and then we would hit a cliff with scarcity and exploding fuel prices.
If none of these limits are observed, the SPR will only be empty in early 2027, and then no new SPR can be built up again.
All this was explained very clearly by Chris Martensen:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=naLXdDsQdi4&t=5s
However:
These past days Canadian Prepper and others reported that the US announced that the SPR can be drained until it only contains 70 million barrels. Apparently they no longer observe limitation 1 & 2, only 3. But I suspect the last limit will be discarded too when it is reached.
Consequences (if the status quo remains and nothing else happens):
1. The US will reach the bottom of the SPR only in Early 2027, will not hit a fuel cliff, and prices will keep rising slowly.
2. The US boasts that it’s economy will outlast Iran’s, and damage to the GOP at the midterms will remain limited
The abandonment of SPR limits, in fact “to hell with the future of the SPR”, is in accordance with the US administration now finally deeply understanding that this present war is the “big one” itself. Existential for the worldwide US “empire” & the Petrodollar to survive or not. The US and Iran now both are in an existential war, neither can give in.
So both the US and Iran will behave like wounded but still very dangerous beasts fighting for their lives. Both will become ever more devoid of conscience and reason.
For the US, actions like boots on the ground in Iran, accepting the death of many of its soldiers, and even the use of nukes are getting ever more probable.
For Iran/Yemen, actions like keeping both Straits closed, destroying the entire fuel and civilian infrastructure of the Gulf states, activating sleeper cells, and ground invasions are getting ever more probable.
I have no idea how empty the SPR’s of other countries are, and how far they will be emptied. The Netherlands just announced it will start using its own for the first time since March. I assume the world’s SPR’s will be emptied slower as they get emptier, and they will not be at their limits all at the same time. So this too will not cause a cliff, prices and shortages will only increase gradually. Should China start refilling its SPR, oil prices will rise extra, but not necessarily explosively.
At the moment, I see only two scenario’s in which a fuel cliff will happen:
1. Activating Iranian sleeper cells that will damage refineries and other fuel infrastructure in the US and other countries that support the war of the US against Iran, for instance the UK.
2. A sudden collapse of the AI bubble, taking down all related stocks, bonds and several currencies.
Meanwhile:
Saudi Arabia and Yemen are now in a tit-for-tat fight exactly like the US and Iran.
Both Straits remain closed and all Gulf infrastructure is slowly degraded.
Iranian Prof Marandi (close to the IRGC) told Canadian Prepper that the Houthi’s might invade Saudi Arabia, and that Iran’s allies in Iraq might invade Kuwait. These might happen before the ground invasion by Iran itself, to make the invasion by many infantrymen suffer less losses, or during it.
Ukraine is getting ever more successful in taking Russian infrastructure of all sorts out of action. It now imports fuels in stead of exporting it, putting extra pressure on fuel prices. Many think that the Russian economy is in fear of collapse. Russia is making ever more preparation for mass draft and mobilisation against Ukraine and the rest of Europe. At some point, the Putin regime too might become convinced that it is in an existential war. Then Russia, like the US and Iran, will become a wounded but very dangerous beast too.
The Chinese remain very quiet. Yet at some point they must start suffering too because of both Straits closed, and its oil having to sail around all of Africa.
Despite the Houthi blockade of Strait Bab-el-Mandeb, and three attacked tankers, dozens of ships still sail through it, even though some have made U-turns. Apparently insurers, shipowners and captains fear the Houthi’s less than Iran, and/or sailing all the way around Africa is so slow and expensive that the risk-calculations turn out differently here than in the Persian Gulf.
https://www.nytimes.com/2026/07/25/business/energy-environment/houthi-blockade-red-sea-maps.html
Maybe because of this, the Houthi’s turned up the pressure on Saudi Arabia today. They attacked oil facilities in the Red Sea cities of Yanbu and Jizan with drones and missiles. If they were to succeed in damaging the oil facilities there, especially the Yanbu pipeline, that would be a much bigger blow to the world’s oil & fuel production than a complete closure of Bab-el-Mandeb.
https://apnews.com/article/iran-us-hormuz-strait-war-25-july-2026-df3790320c595f3e599fb1dd69423e77
All this is especially bad for Asia. After the Strait of Hormuz closed, Saudi Arabia has exported around 5 million barrels per day from Yanbu. Four-fifths of those shipments were for Asia. Secondary, it is bad for Europe, for Asia exports lots of goods to Europe.
https://www.reuters.com/commentary/reuters-open-interest/cutting-off-red-sea-oil-route-may-be-one-crisis-too-many-2026-07-23/
Because of all this, the Trump administration considers attacking Iranian-backed Houthi forces in Yemen. But U.S. forces in the Middle East are already being stretched thin by nearly two weeks of daily airstrikes against Iran.
Trump has said he would hold Iran responsible for any further attacks by the militants, and threatened to expand the war to include the group itself. It would be the first major action against the Houthis since Operation Rough Rider — the Pentagon’s 52-day bombing campaign in Yemen — more than a year ago.
Former U.S. commanders say that a two-front war would present formidable challenges, including the availability of U.S. combat forces. It depends on how much the US throttles up the Iran operation. Right now, it is not at full throttle.
https://www.nytimes.com/2026/07/24/us/politics/trump-new-front-iran-war.html
Finally, the Ukraine war and the Gulf war are connecting more intimately. Ukraine already supports Gulf states with its anti-drone expertise. Today it struck a Russian warship and two vessels used for transporting Iran-linked military cargo in the Caspian Sea. They also struck a Russian oil platform there.
https://english.alarabiya.net/News/world/2026/07/25/ukraine-says-it-hit-russian-warship-and-ships-used-for-iranlinked-military-cargoes
As I’ve said before, Coalition forces would avoid striking civilians or their infrastructure in Yemen for as long as possible, but Iran and the Houthis may not give them that option for much longer.
https://english.alarabiya.net/News/middle-east/2026/07/25/coalition-joint-forces-command-announces-strikes-on-houthi-targets-in-yemen-s-hodeidah
Any serious direct threat to multiple countries’ shipping would result in faster, stronger international response, now that Iran is starting to awaken other countries to the actual scale and severity of the danger. That’s why the Houthis announced only a blockade on Saudi Arabia first, but they could expand that at any time to include other countries as they did in the conflict a year ago.
Like Adamant pointed out, the US only has so many forces available. The right response to the Houthis would involve multiple coalition partners with boots on the ground, not just the US going ‘Lone Ranger.’ Even that guy had help. The Houthis might have enough drones that they could pose a threat to Coalition ground forces comparable to what Ukraine faces every day. The Houthis can’t resupply, but in the short term it’s about what they already have that can do some damage.