Diesel Supply Precarious

By Mark Davidson on September 6, 2026 • ( 0 )

(6 September 2026) We have been watching events centered on Iran and its regime, waiting for escalation of what looks to be the Second Signpost.

We have been watching since February 28. The Strait of Hormuz was mostly closed from March 2 to August 23 or so, being about 175 days. The Strait was sporadically open, and is now basically closed due to reports that Iran is laying mines in the Strait again.

This Oilprice story reports that US fuel refineries continue to run at full capacity.

At the end of August, US refinery utilization was at 98 percent. Global inventories of fuel are being depleted due to the Strait of Hormuz being closed, the incessant bombing of refineries in Russia by Ukraine, and due to the typical summer demand.

The Oilprice article states,

“The soaring U.S. refinery output has helped – a lot – the global market and has so far prevented it from tilting into a full-blown fuel crisis. U.S. refinery utilization has run consistently at above 95% for three consecutive months, the longest such run of high refinery runs since 2000.”

This earlier post on this website caught the news that US refineries have been running at too high a capacity for too long.

The Oilprice piece also reports that, “Somewhere between 7 and 8 million barrels a day of global refining capacity is offline, and the gap is starting to show up at the pump.”

Conclusion

Not only is the world not getting 10 to 12 million barrels of oil per day due to the Strait closure, the world is not getting its’ 7 to 8 million barrels of fuel per day.

So far it has resulted in a record diesel price of almost $6 per gallon.

Any reduction in supply and we will see shortages and rationing. At that point we will see a slide in product availability due to supply chain breaks.

Don’t assume shipping will always continue.

Don’t go on travel beyond one gas tank’s round trip, and assume you will get back home.

Be ready. Prepare. Don’t procrastinate.

Keep watch.