(6 September 2026) We have been watching events centered on Iran and its regime, waiting for escalation of what looks to be the Second Signpost.
We have been watching since February 28. The Strait of Hormuz was mostly closed from March 2 to August 23 or so, being about 175 days. The Strait was sporadically open, and is now basically closed due to reports that Iran is laying mines in the Strait again.
This Oilprice story reports that US fuel refineries continue to run at full capacity.
At the end of August, US refinery utilization was at 98 percent. Global inventories of fuel are being depleted due to the Strait of Hormuz being closed, the incessant bombing of refineries in Russia by Ukraine, and due to the typical summer demand.
The Oilprice article states,
“The soaring U.S. refinery output has helped – a lot – the global market and has so far prevented it from tilting into a full-blown fuel crisis. U.S. refinery utilization has run consistently at above 95% for three consecutive months, the longest such run of high refinery runs since 2000.”
This earlier post on this website caught the news that US refineries have been running at too high a capacity for too long.
The Oilprice piece also reports that, “Somewhere between 7 and 8 million barrels a day of global refining capacity is offline, and the gap is starting to show up at the pump.”
Conclusion
Not only is the world not getting 10 to 12 million barrels of oil per day due to the Strait closure, the world is not getting its’ 7 to 8 million barrels of fuel per day.
So far it has resulted in a record diesel price of almost $6 per gallon.
Any reduction in supply and we will see shortages and rationing. At that point we will see a slide in product availability due to supply chain breaks.
Don’t assume shipping will always continue.
Don’t go on travel beyond one gas tank’s round trip, and assume you will get back home.
Be ready. Prepare. Don’t procrastinate.
Keep watch.
Categories: In The News, Signpost #2: Iran, USA in the End Times
Mark: Are any ships headed for the Persian Gulf in the hope the Straight will be opened?
There are, of course, ships still trapped in the Gulf. Since the damage to the world’s economy has already been set in motion why wouldn’t the Iranians let out the oil tankers already there? It would take 40 days for the tankers to arrive at their intended destination. For a couple of weeks they would look like good guys.
Karl,
I saw a couple reports claiming that the oil through the Strait these days is one-third of the pre-war amount. Nothing official, though, and we’ve learned both Iranian and America sides can lie about reality.
Maybe Iran is allowing as much as there is going through to keep the global panic from setting in just yet.