(29 June 2026) It is now 10 pm MST June 29, or, 4 AM GMT, June 30. We have been watching events centered on Iran and its regime, waiting for escalation of what looks to be the Second Signpost.
The Strait of Hormuz was closed solidly for 112 days. It was then open for six days.
As of today, it seems to be officially closed again and has now been closed for three days.
The global oil inventory continues to be drawn down to the dregs.
Things are relatively calm in the Persian Gulf, likely waiting for the next round of talks tomorrow, Tuesday, in Qatar. So let’s look at the other hotspot which is the Russia-Ukraine War.
Russia
Daniel Davis of Deep Dive provides a thought provoking commentary on Russia and the position they are being driven to, due to the bombardment by Ukraine using drones from the West.
Davis goes further than my initial thought from this post six days ago about the possibility of Russia lashing out.
The whole video is worth watching. Starting at 07:53, however, he reverses roles. What would we, the USA do, or any number of countries do, in response to the kinds of attacks that Russia has been receiving?
It looks like Russia is getting ready to respond to the countries providing weapons, and the countries providing permission to airspace. Davis makes the point that the US is provoked to military action just with more subtle economic reasons.
Conclusion
I believe Russia is doing what Russia has always done: take punches and absorb lots of damage from adversaries in war, before completely defeating the aggressor.
Think Napoleon and Hitler.
The Russian public is tired of this, and Putin is being pressured to respond.
The Russia-Ukraine War may yet still be connected to the Second Signpost. The first clue was the red line Russia overcame at the start of the current seven-year cycle. (The redline was absorbing the Russians living in east Ukraine into Russia by annexing the territory.)
Might the US military withdraw like we saw might happen?
Might Russia start WW3?
Either of these will open the gate wide to the Second Signpost.
Keep watch.
Categories: Signpost #2: Iran, In The News, ALERT, World in the End Times
THE FOUR SIGNPOSTS 
That is an interesting perspective. Konstantin Samoilov over at INSIDE RUSSIA Youtube channel has a somewhat different perspective on how Russian people are coping and what they will or will not tolerate from their leaders.
Putin’s war is also starting to test his few remaining allies’ patience, except for Iran’s. The Islamic Republic is actually still spoiling for a fight. They might be willing to send troops or ‘refugees’ into Europe if determined enough to keep the Europeans distracted for a few months. Some of the IRGC and Basij might be eager to go and take the fight to the West on the Europeans’ home soil rather than sit around waiting for the US or Israel to bomb or starve them out. It wouldn’t likely be enough to destroy the major European countries, but it still could do a lot of damage. If that is what they would do, it would be secondary to their wider Middle Eastern goals and be designed to keep Europe from responding to their Mideast invasions effectively.
At first glance, such a division of resources away from the Iranians’ main invasion might seem strange, especially since the Europeans didn’t join in Trump and Netanyahu’s war, but one of their targets would probably be European air bases to keep them from getting the chance to do so if they decide to come late to the party rather than not at all. Iran’s ‘air defense’ strategy is to deny the enemy bases close enough to reliably and affordably operate air assets. Iranian forces would love to be sent after what their leaders might tell them to expect to be comparatively soft targets inside relatively unprepared NATO countries rather than the meat grinder of mines, drones, and artillery they would face if sent into Ukraine. The Europeans are expecting a Russian attack, not an Iranian one, which is why the Iranian one may catch them more off guard if that’s what happens. Don’t expect Ukraine to just sit back and watch if the Iranians do somehow manage to get thousands of trained fighters around them and into Europe. They would send their drone units to help the Europeans even if Trump failed to respond. They wouldn’t get things cleaned up right away.
Putin has already lost the Ukraine war. Attacking Europe with Russian forces, either nuclear or conventional, wouldn’t change that. Letting Iran attack Europe and shock and awe the Europeans might satisfy his desire for revenge, though and it fits with the Persian Ram getting to do what it pleases, at least for a time.
Davis gives a grim and cynical overview of how the Russian regime sees matters. I think he is mostly right. Including what it might ultimately lead to.
Davis’ accuses Europeans of bragging, being totally unconcerned with how many people die in this war, and ignoring the Russian nuclear threat. If Davis only means this is how the Russian regime describes the attitude of the Europeans, then I have no issue with this. But if Davis means this is really the attitude of the Europeans, then I disagree with him.
At least in all the Dutch & English language media I have been reading since the start of this war, from different countries, and in personal contacts, I have never read or heard any bragging. I did see amazement and sympathy for the Ukrainian population enduring the relentless attacks of Russia on the Ukrainian civilian infrastructure for years, suffering from extreme cold through lack of gas and electricity. Seeing ever more of their homes, villages and cities being turned to dust, one after the other, by the slow onslaught of the Russian army, while Ukraine was utterly incapable of retaliating to Russia.
Yes, for the biggest part of this war this was entirely one sided: Ukraine at first did not have the capacities to attack the Russian infrastructure. Both Europe and the US forbade Ukraine to use the arms they supplied to be used in Russia, because both Europe and the US feared Russian nuclear retaliation. From the start of this war I saw a lot of concern in the media because of Russia’s nuclear weapons. No complacency here, nor hubris, and no bragging either. Even today, Germany refuses to give its Taurus missiles to Ukraine, because of the fear of Russian nuclear retaliation.
I did see amazement and disgust about the utter ruthlessness of the Russian regime against its own soldiers, having no regard for human life at all, expending them like flies. Never did I encounter European glee, bragging or satisfaction about this.
Did European elites use Ukraine as a battering ram to pester Russia? No. They did exactly the opposite, for a very long time.
Both elected officials and whatever elites there are stayed lazy and complacent for far too long. They stayed firmly asleep even after the Russian invasion of Crimea and Eastern Ukraine in 2014. European leaders kept believing that there never would be a big war in Europe again, and kept trimming down their militaries to save money. The Baltic states and Poland, and a few military chiefs in other European countries, warned the rest of Europe, but most of those in power stayed complacent, passive and having a childlike trust in the US to prevent war coming to them through NATO article 5.
Even the unprovoked invasion of Ukraine by Russia only partially undid this complacency. The European countries, like the US, started to make and buy arms to give and sell to Ukraine, but not much more. Finland and Sweden (never having been complacent) joined NATO as fast as they could. For finally it dawned that Russia gradually turned its entire industry, economy, propaganda and repression to total war, and was becoming a huge threat to all of Europe; not only nuclear, but conventional too.
Only after the Trump administration two years ago shocked the European leaders by telling them in no uncertain terms that they could not take US support nor article 5 for granted, treating them with scorn, and openly siding with Russia in several respects, treating their allies as enemies, most of the European people in power awoke. Their deeds prove this: most European countries are now re-arming as fast as they can, and are turning industry and economy to war, away from civilian purposes.
Also from two years ago on, European countries realised that Ukraine with its growing drone-and counter-drone expertise and industry is now more important for the protection of Europe than the withdrawing US, that grossly underestimated the Iranian drones. (Just as recently happened for the Gulf States.) They lifted many restrictions of use of their arms against Russia, to slow down the buildup of the Russian war machine. They increased cooperation with Ukraine in developing arms, etc.
This is still not using Ukraine as a battering ram against Russia. It is using Ukraine as a shield against Russia, hoping that it will hold out long enough, say 2 or 3 years, for Europe to become strong enough to withstand the Russian assault that many now believe will really come after these 2 or 3 years.
If Ukraine gets too successful in this, and/or Europe too strong, Russia might turn to nukes. Both China and India have warned Russia against this, telling this is a red line for them. But time will tell if this remains enough to prevent Russia going nuclear. Finally I agree with Davis that as of this moment, nothing points to Russia going nuclear any time soon.
Adamant,
“Even the unprovoked invasion of Ukraine by Russia only partially undid this complacency.”
I don’t think I would call it “unprovoked,” at least as far as Russia is concerned.
One of the factors that drives Russia——from everything I’ve seen both in historical contexts and today——is Russia’s national and cultural idol. For China it was buddhism, daoism, and confucianism, until Mao took it all away. For Europe, it’s their -isms (e.g. marxism, secularism, darwinism, etc.), and for the Americas its money. But Russia’s cultural idol is unique. It’s a form of nationalism on steroids: it’s Russia itself which is to say their language, their culture, their religion. In Russia’s leadership’s minds, Russia must be one nation with all Russians living in it. It’s been that way since the days of the Mongol invasion.
So when the new west-leaning Kiev government was installed by western coup, it immediately started persecuting the Russian populations in those four eastern oblasts; forcing them to not be Russian and raising their kids in school to not be Russian. The final straw was that these Russians were going to be forced to be part of a Ukraine that looked like (in 2021-22) it was going to join NATO and therefore some Russians would be enemies of other Russians. The Russian government couldn’t stand for that.
So unprovoked? Maybe in the minds of the West. But not in the minds of Russia.
Years ago at an Easter breakfast a relative of mine prayed over the food, “Lord, please bless this food and please drive the Russians out of Ukraine”. I could NOT say “amen” to that prayer for the inclusion of the “drive the Russians out”. I was praying for the overthrow of Zelinski and his money laudering operations for corrupt western politicians.
@Mark,
I already felt a bit uncertain about using or not using the word “unprovoked”.
I agree that what is unprovoked according to European standards, is provoked according to Russian standards.
A refugee from Kharkiv told me that there indeed were attempts to eradicate the Russian language, favouring Ukrainian. He was Ukrainian himself, but was against forcing it. The fear and hatred of Russia is understandable because of all the oppression and horrors Russia inflicted on the Ukrainians, but this does not make it good.
As I wrote in an earlier comment, I am aware of what I called the “Russian Spirit”. Your expression “cultural idol” is a good practical description. It is extremely oppressive to both Russians and to any other ethnicities in its realm. Even the Russian Orthodox church is very much part of it. It always was more Russian than orthodox. The ochrana (the secret police) and the church were the left and right arms the Tzars used to control the empire. Under the Soviets this cultural idol was called the “Rodina”, a concept as close to a god as possible within communism, temporarily replacing the church. Putin reinstated the church at the very moment he became president.
I think China’s cultural idol was and is very similar. The first emperor to unite all of China taught “All Under Heaven”: every Chinese must be united under one emperor, and all must be of one mind. This concept is as old as united China itself and has become as Chinese as Taoism and Confucianism. (Buddhism is from India; it came to China much later, and was sometimes persecuted by the authorities because of not being Chinese but foreign.) Mao took the religions away, but kept adhering strongly to the ancient cultural idol “All under heaven”, which also has little regard for individual human lives, and only for itself and its ruling elite. It fitted Mao’s communism very well. China’s hunger for Taiwan is very similar to Russia’s hunger to get all Russians in one empire.
Both China and Russia are real Beasts: combinations of empire, emperor, culture, religion, cultural idols and probably a spiritual entity above it, behind the screens. The US seems to try to move in the direction of becoming some sort of Beast too.
It is difficult to imagine present Europe as such a Beast; it looks much more like a leaderless pack of dogs of different races, sizes, ages and aptitudes attempting to become a united pack of hounds strong enough to take on the Russian Bear.
Adamant: Agreed.
Adamant: Remember, bears tend to avoid hounds, not the other way around.